Abstract
In November 2008, broadcaster Deutsche Welle reported that plans to
part-privatise the national rail
service had been postponed for a second
time. Government officials said they were delaying the proposed
sale of a
stake in an operating subsidiary for an undisclosed period of time due to the
turbulence created
by the global financial crisis that broke out in
October. Some sources suggested privatisation might be put
off until after
the next German elections, due in September 2009. The government had been due
to sell
just under 25% of the shares in Deutsche Bahn Mobility Logistics,
a subsidiary company charged with
both passenger and freight rail
transport. Thomas de Maiziere, chief of staff for Chancellor Angela
Merkel, said a sale was still possible before the elections and that it had
been postponed, not abandoned.
However, observers noted that the finance
ministry was not calculating to receive any privatisation
revenue from the
sale during the course of 2009. Other officials also stressed that the
government would
not want to sell the stake at a price that undercut its
value and would bide their time until ‘a reasonable
return can be
expected’. BMI’s newly-released Germany Freight Transport Report
2009 concludes that
rail freight traffic (measured in million
tonnes/kilometre, mntkm) will grow at an annual average of 1.1%
during
2009-2013. This is a shade slower than the economy as a whole, which we expect
to expand by
1.3% per annum over the same period.
Reforms and
structural change will be important issues facing the industry. The pace of
change will be
relatively measured, however. Under approved plans, rail
freight is expected to take some of the strain off
the roads, through a
variety of mechanisms and initiatives including increased reliance on road
pricing,
encouragement of inter-modal transport hubs, and development of
intelligent traffic systems (ITS). BMI
predicts, however, that road
haulage will grow by 1.2% per annum and actually increase its share of
total
freight traffic to 69%. Rail freight will grow by 1.1% per annum and
maintain its share of the total at
16%. Among the other modes, sea cargo
will grow by 1.4%, supported by Germany’s international trade,
while
airfreight will expand by 1.3% per annum, thanks to a steady performance in a
tough market by
Deutsche Lufthansa.
The operating environment for
transportation companies will be favourable although constrained by slow
macroeconomic growth. We score the overall freight industry operating
environment at 57.6 (out of a
theoretical total of 100). That said,
Germany’s regulatory and competitive environments, important
components of the overall rating, still present scope for improvement, given
the plethora of taxes and
regulations that add to operating costs. Despite
this, the German freight industry can continue to count on
world class
companies with a deserved reputation for quality and attention to detail.
Across all modes the scene is set for moderate growth and development. With
Germany acting as a key
European manufacturing and trading hub, BMI
forecasts that its transport and communications sector will
grow to a
value of US$217.4bn by 2013, equivalent to 7.4% of GDP.
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