Hong Kong Commercial Banking Report Q1 2009

Table of Contents

Executive Summary — 5
Table: Levels (HKDbn) — 5
Table: Levels (US$bn) — 5
Table: Levels At December 31 2007 — 5
Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections, 2007-2012 (%) — 5
Table: Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In Q208 — 6
Table: Projected Levels (HKDbn) — 6
Table: Projected Levels (US$bn) — 6
Key Issues — 7
SWOT Analysis — 9
Hong Kong Commercial Banking SWOT — 9
Hong Kong Political SWOT — 10
Hong Kong Economic SWOT — 11
Hong Kong Business Environment SWOT — 12
Changes To The Commercial Banking Report — 13
The Global Financial Crisis – Continued — 13
Table: Selected European Countries – Projected Budget And Current Account, 2008 (as % of GDP) — 15
New Information From Q209 — 18
Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating — 19
Table: Argentina’s Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings — 19
Table: Asia Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings — 20
Bank Lending — 22
Lending Overview — 22
Table: Lending Overview (HKDbn) — 22
Total Assets, Client Loans And Client Deposits — 23
Table: Comparison Of Total Assets, Client Loans And Client Deposits (US$bn) — 23
Per-Capita Deposits — 24
Table: Comparison Of Per-Capita Deposits, Late 2007 (US$) — 24
Country Update — 25
Political Outlook — 25
Macroeconomic Trends And Developments — 27
Table: Hong Kong – Macroeconomic Activity, 2005-2012 — 28
Industry Forecast Scenario — 29
Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections, 2007-2012 (%) — 29
Table: Projected Levels (HKDbn) — 29
Table: Projected Levels (US$bn) — 29
Comment On Developments Over Last Year — 29
Comment On Forecasts — 30
Comment On Trends and Ratios — 31
Table: Comparison Of Loan/Deposit, Loan/Asset And Loan/GDP Ratios, Late 2007/Early 2008 — 31
Banks’ Bond Portfolios — 34
Table: Bond Portfolios, Late 2007 — 34
Competitive Landscape And Protagonists — 36
Country Snapshot: Hong Kong Demographic Data — 38
Section 1: Population — 38
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 — 38
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown — 39
Section 2: Education And Healthcare — 39
Table: Education, 2002-2005 — 39
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 — 39
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power — 40
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 — 40
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) — 40
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2005-2012 — 41
Methodology — 42
Basis Of Projections — 43
Commercial Bank Business Environment Rating — 43
Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Indicators And Rationale — 45
Table: Weighting Of Indicators — 46