Abstract
In time for the launch of BMI's infrastructure Q109 reports we have revised our construction data. The
data has been modified from 2008 onwards. This initiative stems from new methodology being
introduced in our forecasting method and aims to increase the relevance and reliability of BMI's
infrastructure data.
For 2009 BMI forecasts that Hungary's construction industry will be worth HUF898.9bn (US$5.08bn)
this is a decline of 5.33% on 2008 figure of 901.9bn (US$5.23bn). The country's construction industry
real growth has been declining over the past three years and we do not expect it to recover its drop until
2010. The situation looks slightly better by the end of our forecast period in 2013 as we predict that the
country will be registering growth of 3.9%. In 2009 we predict that the construction sector will make up
3.11% of Hungary's GDP, this figure is set to slip to 3% by the end of our forecast period. Despite its
small GDP share percentage construction is a vital area of employment for the citizen's of Hungary. In
2009 the country's construction workforce will increase slightly with 283,650, with the sector making up
7.28% of the country's total workforce. This workforce is expected to grow to approximately 603,500 by
2012.
BMI believes that the construction sector, not just domestically in Hungary, but worldwide will be
buffeted by the global economic downturn and will lead to investors tightening their belts, leaving less
money to go towards funding infrastructure related projects, especially those in the real estate sphere.
This could see a serious decline in the number of companies available to participate in Private Public
Partnership (PPP) projects, which will lead to delays and in some case cancellations of proposed
infrastructure schemes.
In relation to Hungary BMI notes that the country's construction industry is already experiencing a
downturn and although BMI has no news of specific projects that may be affected by the economic
downturn it could be a case of watch this space. BMI however is confident that the big infrastructure
projects launched in 2008, such as the major road and motorway projects that were won by some of
Europe main infrastructure contractors such as Germany's Bilfinger Berger and Hungary's Strabag will
go ahead, though there is a high possibility of delays.
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