Abstract
Our previous report’s comment that ‘security issues in India
continue to be overshadowed by the
deterioration of the political and
internal security situation in Pakistan,’ could not have been more
prescient given the events of November 2008, when 173 people were killed and
scores more injured in
terrorist attacks blamed on a Pakistan-based
group.
Although Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari continues to insist
that there is no direct evidence that the
Mumbai attackers were trained by
terrorists in Pakistan, he has vowed to weed out those responsible, and
has arrested dozens of suspects in connection with the attacks. Employing a
similar carrot and stick
approach to the situation, India’s defence
minister has moved to allay widespread fears of war with
Pakistan, but
also promised that unless its neighbour takes action against terrorists who
are operating
against India, in particular those who are behind the latest
attack on Mumbai, ‘things will not be normal’.
India’s
most concrete reaction to events in Mumbai has been the joint military
operation undertaken with
Chinese forces in early December. With the
terrorists having entered India by sea, India’s defence
minister has
held a series of talks with the country’s navy to discuss how security
along its 7,516km long
coastline can be enhanced. In another maritime
development, November saw the Indian navy get approval
to pursue pirates
into Somali waters. The navy said it would also consider sending more warships
to the
region, where international anti-piracy forces are already
active.
The fate of the nuclear pact with the US continues to be in the
hands of the US congress, which has been
using the deal as a leverage to
influence India to limit its burgeoning relationship with Iran. It is the
perceived realignment of India, still nominally a non-aligned state, towards
US foreign policy which has
provoked the anger of the communists. The deal
brings considerable gains for India in the form of nuclear
fuel and
technology, which will have a sizeable impact on the government’s effort
to expand power
supply in line with rocketing demand, but it is unlikely
that the Indian National Congress (INC) will be
rewarded for this in the
upcoming elections. Moreover, increasing military and defence co-operation
with
the US and Israel could create a rival axis to the expected Chinese
regional dominance, and offer India a
greater range of arms for
procurement.
In a separate political development, India and Russia agreed
to extend their Inter-Governmental
Commission for Military and Technical
Co-operation by another 10 years to 2020 from 2010.
Although India has
been the largest importer of conventional arms among developing nations, its
military
exports are comparatively negligible, and in Q408 incoming
weapons technology continued to dominate
newsflow.
Boeing said in
October that it would bid for US$20bn in defence aircraft orders over the next
10 years,
and in the previous month Russian Defence Minister Anatoly
Serdyukov raised the idea of lending India a
nuclear submarine.
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