Abstract
While Indonesia’s internal security situation remains complex, it
appears that the fundamental problems
in Indonesia are economic, rather
than political or religious. Nevertheless, the three months to the end of
December bought several themes to the fore. One is the improved security
environment of central
Sulawesi and parts of Maluku, traditionally seen as
areas of instability. Ongoing concerted efforts by the
Indonesian
government to restore peace and build stability in these troubled regions have
begun to bear
fruit. Moreover, documented evidence supports the decline of
militant Islamic groups, such as Jemaah
Islamiyah (JI) and Laskah Jihad.
Another region where improvements are noted is Aceh, where the
situation
remains calm. However, claims about corruption on the part of former
insurgents who now hold
political office, the fragmentation of the Gerakan
Aceh Merdeka (GAM) organisation, and the activities
of the TNI – the
Indonesian military – mean that risks of violence are real.
Another
key theme was the continued unrest in Papua, where what was originally an
independence
struggle waged by Organisasi Papua Merdeka (OPM) has
transformed into something more complex.
More recently, the situation in
Papua has been further complicated by a substantial number of
predominantly Muslim immigrants (from other parts of Indonesia) who are keen
for the national
government to maintain control.
For the time being,
we continue to expect that the Indonesian government will increase defence
spending
by 9% annually, in real terms, over the coming years. Absolute
increases will depend in part on how the
country’s economy fares in
the face of the Global Financial Crisis. Recent developments in Thailand,
a
political crisis very far from being resolved, and the major set-back to
the peace negotiations that are
taking place between the Philippine
government and the insurgents in Mindanao, should ensure that, at
least
for the time being, the focus on Indonesia as the principal locus of security
issues in South East Asia,
will abate.
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