Abstract
The new Indonesia Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will
account for 2.08% of Asia
Pacific regional power generation by 2013, with
a continuing generation shortfall that will entail a
significant import
requirement. BMI’s Asia Pacific power generation assumption for 2007 is
6,865
terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 9.6% over the
previous year. We are forecasting an
increase in regional generation to
9,980TWh by 2013, representing a rise of 45.4%.
Asia Pacific thermal power
generation in 2007 was 5,407TWh, accounting for 78.8% of the total
electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2013 is 7,458TWh,
implying 37.9% growth but
reducing the market share of thermal generation
to 74.7% – thanks partly to environmental concerns that
should be
promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation.
Indonesia’s thermal generation
in 2007 was 135TWh, or 2.50% of the
regional total. By 2013, the country is expected to account for
2.56% of
thermal generation.
For Indonesia, oil is the dominant fuel, accounting
for 47.5% of 2007 primary energy demand (PED),
followed by gas at 26.5%,
coal at 24.3% and hydro with a 1.7% share. Regional energy demand is
forecast to reach 5,172mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2013, representing
39.9% growth over the
period. Indonesia’s 2007 market share of 3.10%
is set to fall to 2.93% by 2013. Indonesia is moving
ahead slowly with
controversial plans to build its first nuclear power plant, which could be
operational by
2017.
Indonesia is now ranked equal fourth with
Malaysia and Pakistan in BMI’s updated Power Business
Environment
rating, reflecting its low level of energy import dependence and healthy power
consumption
growth prospects. Several country risk factors offset some of
the industry strength, and the country may
struggle to keep up with
Malaysia and Pakistan over the longer term.
BMI is now forecasting
Indonesian real GDP growth averaging 5.46% per annum between 2007 and
2013, with a 2008 forecast of 6.10%. Population is expected to expand from
231.6mn to 247.8mn over
the period, with GDP per capita and electricity
consumption per capita both forecast to increase
significantly. The
country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated
173TWh in
2007 to 305TWh by the end of the forecast period, leaving a
shortfall in generation rising from an
estimated 26TWh in 2007 to 97TWh in
2013, assuming 7.1% annual growth in electricity generation.
Between 2007
and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Indonesian electricity generation
of 90.7%,
which is among the highest for the Asia Pacific region. This
equates to 35.1% in the 2013-2018 period,
down from 41.2% in 2007-13. PED
growth is set to fall from 32.1% in 2007-13 to 24.0%, representing
63.8%
for the entire forecast period. An increase of 168% in hydro-power use during
2007-18 is a key
element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is
forecast to rise by 88% between 2007 and
2018. More details of the
long-term BMI power forecasts can be found in the Appendix of this report.
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