Table of Contents
Executive Summary — 5
Table: Levels, At December 31
(IRRbn) — 5
Table: Levels, At December 31
(US$bn) — 5
Table: Levels At December 31
2007 — 5
Table: Average Annual Growth Rate Projections,
2008-2013 (%) — 5
Table: Ranking Out Of 59 Countries
Reviewed In Q208 — 6
Table: Projected Levels
(IRRbn) — 6
Table: Projected Levels
(US$bn) — 6
Key Issues — 7
Iran
Commercial Banking SWOT — 9
Iran Political
SWOT — 9
Iran Economic SWOT — 10
Iran
Business Environment SWOT — 10
Changes To The Commercial
Banking Report — 11
The Global Financial Crisis –
Continued — 11
Table: Selected European Countries –
Projected Budget And Current Account, 2008 (as % of
GDP) — 13
New Information From
2Q09 — 16
Islamic Finance – Quo
Vadis? — 17
Introduction — 17
(Some)
Hard Numbers — 17
Some More Hard
Numbers — 19
Under-Recognised
Challenges — 21
The Global Financial
Crisis — 22
What Really Matters: Indicators To Watch In
2009 — 23
Conclusion — 25
Commercial
Banking Business Environment Rating — 27
Table:
Iran’s Commercial Banking Business Environment
Ratings — 27
Table: Middle East And Africa Commercial
Banking Business Environment Ratings — 29
Bank
Lending — 30
Lending Overview — 30
Table: Lending Overview (IRRbn) — 30
Total Assets, Client
Loans And Client Deposits — 31
Table: Comparison Of Total
Assets, Client Loans And Client Deposits (US$bn) — 31
Per-Capita Deposits — 32
Table: Comparison Of Per-Capita
Deposits, Late 2007 (US$) — 32
Country
Update — 33
Macroeconomic Trends And
Developments — 33
Table: Iran – Economic
Activity — 35
Political Outlook — 36
Industry Forecast Scenario — 42
Table: Average Annual
Growth Rate Projections, 2008-2013 (%) — 42
Table:
Projected Levels (IRRbn) — 42
Table: Projected Levels
(US$bn) — 42
Comment On Developments Over
2007 — 42
Comment On Forecasts — 43
Comment On Trends and Ratios — 44
Table: Comparison Of
Loan/Deposit, Loan/Asset And Loan/GDP Ratios, Late 2007/Early
2008 — 44
Banks’ Bond
Portfolios — 47
Table: Bond Portfolios, Late
2007 — 47
Competitive Landscape And
Protagonists — 49
Methodology — 51
Basis Of Projections — 52
Commercial Bank Business
Environment Rating — 52
Table: Commercial Banking Business
Environment Indicators And Rationale — 54
Table: Weighting
Of Indicators — 55
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