Abstract
In time for the launch of BMI's infrastructure Q109 reports we have revised our construction data. The
data has been modified from 2008 onwards. This initiative stems from new methodology being
introduced in our forecasting method and aims to increase the relevance and reliability of BMI's
infrastructure data. BMI strives to be able to offer five year industry forecasts, however, some data sets
are currently available, but will be updated in time for our Q209 series of reports. BMI will therefore
make its predictions based on data sets for 2009-2012.
For 2009, BMI forecasts that Iran's construction industry will be worth IRR176,298bn (US$18.02bn).
The sector's value is forecast to continue increasing and we expect it to be worth approximately
IRR307,484bn (US$29.18bn) in 2012. We note that growth in Iran's construction sector slowed in 2008,
with just 2.13% of growth. Things look set to pick up in 2009, however, with the construction sector's
growth forecast to be 6.90%. This growth will drop off slightly later in the forecast period, with 2012's
growth figure predicted to be around 4.80%.
Iran's construction industry makes up a small percentage of Iran's total GDP, just 4.31%. BMI notes that
this will slip slightly during the mid term, with the sector accounting for just 4.27% of total GDP by 2012.
BMI believes that the construction sector, not just domestically in Iran, but worldwide will be buffeted by
the global economic downturn and will lead to investors tightening their belts, leaving less money to go
towards funding infrastructure-related projects, especially those in the real estate sphere. This could see a
serious decline in the number of companies available to participate in Private Public Partnership (PPP)
projects, which will lead to delays and in some case cancellations of proposed infrastructure schemes.
In relation to Iran, BMI has no news of specific projects that may be affected by the economic downturn
and it could be a case of 'watch this space'. BMI is, however, confident that the big infrastructure
projects launched in 2008 especially work associated with Iran's plans to develop nuclear power will
move ahead.
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