Abstract
BMI forecasts that Kazakhstan will account for 4.68% of Central and Eastern
European (CEE) regional
power generation by 2013. CEE power generation was
an estimated 2,111 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2008,
representing an increase
of 2.9% on the previous year. We are forecasting a rise in regional generation
to
2,461twh by 2013, representing an increase of 16.6%.
CEE thermal
power generation in 2008 was an estimated 1,323twh, accounting for 62.7% of
the total
electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2013 stands
at 1,474twh, implying 11.4% growth that
will reduce the market share of
thermal generation only slightly to 59.9%. This reduction will occur in
spite of a promotion of renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation
due to environmental
concerns. Kazakhstan’s thermal generation in
2008 was an estimated 66.6TWh, or 5.04% of the regional
total. By 2013,
the country is expected to account for 6.44% of thermal generation.
Coal
is the dominant fuel source in Kazakhstan, accounting for 49.8% of primary
energy demand (PED).
Coal is followed by gas at 29.6%, oil at 17.6% and
hydro, which holds a 3.0% share of PED. Regional
energy demand is forecast
to reach 1,630mn toe by 2013, representing 16.4% growth over the period.
Kazakhstan’s estimated 2008 market share of 4.53% of regional demand is
set to rise to 5.75% by 2013.
Kazakhstan has longer-term plans for nuclear
power generation, but will not contribute to nuclear
consumption during
the forecast period.
Kazakhstan is now two points adrift of second-placed
Poland in BMI’s updated Power Business
Environment ratings, and is
now four points behind regional leader Romania, despite the combined
factors of its unrivalled power consumption growth outlook, region-topping
energy demand growth,
steady privatisation progress, and relatively low
level of energy import dependence. Country risk factors
offset some of the
industry strengths, and the country has the long-term potential to overtake
Poland and
challenge Romania for the top rung of the regional ladder.
BMI is now forecasting Kazakh real GDP growth to average 4.53% per annum
between 2008 and 2013,
although the 2009 estimate is for a decline of
1.90%. The population is expected to expand from 15.4mn,
to 15.9mn over
the period, and GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita are
forecast to
increase by 71% and 20% respectively. The country’s
power consumption is expected to increase from an
estimated 70.7TWh in
2008 to 87.7TWh by the end of the forecast period, while surplus generation
is
expected to rise from an estimated 9.9TWh in 2007 to 27.4TWh in 2013,
assuming 7.1% annual growth
in power generation.
Between 2007 and
2018, we are forecasting an increase in Kazakh electricity generation of
112.4%,
which is the second highest growth rate for the CEE region. This
equates to 40.9% in the 2013-2018
period, down from 42.9% in 2008-2013.
PED growth is set to fall from 47.6% in 2008-2013 to 36.0%,
representing
112.0% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 247.0% in hydro power
use during
2007-2018 is a key element of generation growth. Thermal power
generation is forecast to rise by 106.7%
between 2007 and 2018. More
detailed long-term forecasts can be found in the appendix of this report.
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