Abstract
In August, transport minister Ainars Slesers said he expected road building
activity to triple in 2009
relative to 2008 levels. ‘We need a
dynamic development plan to carry out new, large scale road
construction
projects in four years at the latest, ensuring at the same time their
quality,’ he said while
chairing a meeting of the Russian-Latvian
bilateral group on cross-border issues, transit shipments and
logistics.
Slesers said that for Latvia the reconstruction of main highways was a
priority. Motorways
would take on increased importance as Latvia developed
its ports. Officials said that Latvian road tolls,
charged under the
Eurovignette framework, would generate revenues of LVL12-15mn (US$24.9mn
–
US$31.2mn). These funds would be used for motorway upgrades and
for the construction of a new truck
parking space on the Latvian-Russian
border. To ease the burden on trucking companies, the ministry said
it
intended to charge around 75% of the recommended Eurovignette toll, which
would work out at LVL6
(US$12.50) a day, with lower rates if paid weekly,
monthly, or annually. In our newly-released Latvia
Freight Transport
Report 2008, BMI is moderately optimistic, concluding that road freight
traffic could
grow by 6.1% per annum through the 2009-2013 forecast
period.
Our forecast is partly based on continuing Russian transit
business, which can be volatile due to political
risk, but this is not the
only factor. Road haulage will expand as the Via Baltica and other highway
projects advance and EU integration drives a rising demand for sophisticated
logistics and warehousing.
After a period of very strong growth the
Latvian economy will lose some dynamism, but GDP growth
should stabilise
at an annual average of 4% over the next five years. The Baltic region as a
whole will
benefit from east-west trade and the influence of the more
developed nearby Scandinavian economies.
More widely, prospects are good
for the freight industry in general. Rail freight growth will be moderate,
due to capacity constraints, and the pressure of passenger traffic demand.
Here we are forecasting annual
growth of around 4.7%. Airfreight turnover
has tended to be volatile in recent years, but we expect it will
grow at
the fastest rate. We project annual growth of 7.9%. Maritime freight will grow
by around 4.3%
per annum on the back of east-west trade, particularly of
Russian oil products.
Across all modes, freight traffic will rise by 4.9%
per annum on average, faster than GDP. Latvia
achieves a score of 59.3
(out of a theoretical maximum of 100) in the BMI transport sector business
environment ranking. This places it in the upper ranking within the European
region. The total value of
Latvian transport and communications GDP will
rise to US$4.9bn in nominal terms by 2013, representing
15.5% of
Latvia’s GDP.
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