Abstract
Klaipeda port handled 20.64mn tonnes of cargo in the first eight months of
2008, an increase of 13.4% on
the comparable period in 2007. The increase
came despite a dip in August, when traffic volume was down
4.3% on the
year, according to Klaipeda Port Authority. By commodities, the biggest
increases in the
first eight months were recorded by sugar, ferroalloys,
agricultural products, petroleum products,
containers, bulk fertilisers,
and metal scrap. Containers handled rose by 19.6% to 247,500 teus (20-foot
equivalent units). The total number of ships using the port rose 3.8%
year-on-year (y-o-y) to 5,300 in the
first eight months. In our newly
released Lithuania Freight Transport Report 2008, BMI notes the
volatility
of Russian transit traffic through Lithuania, but nevertheless concludes that
the country’s port
traffic will achieve an annual average growth
rate of 5.6 % in the five year 2009-2013 forecast period.
Our projection
is based on a number of considerations. Lithuania’s economy will slow
down to an annual
average growth rate of 4.7% in the next five years,
substantially slower than the 7.2% rate achieved in the
preceding
five-year period. At the same time, however, the process of integration into
the European
Union and the regional Scandinavian economies will continue,
and foreign trade will remain fairly
dynamic. These factors will underpin
the growth of port tonnage, although there will be a continuing
question
mark over Russian transit trade, particularly in commodities such as oil and
coal.
Overall, our vision is that the Lithuanian freight transport
industry will continue performing moderately
well, as the country exploits
its role in both East-West and regional EU trade. We expect rail freight
to
grow by an annual average of 5.2% over the forecast period, as
inter-modal links at Klaipeda are
improved. Road freight will remain the
fastest-growing land-based transport mode, with annual growth of
5.8%,
boosted by growing motorway links, improved logistics and the general trend
towards door-to-door
delivery capabilities. Airfreight will increase by
8.8% per annum, reflecting the combined effects of
privatisation, the
budget airline boom and the opening up of new routes. We are projecting
pipeline
throughput growth of 4.3%. Taking all these modes into
consideration, we are now forecasting average
annual growth of freight
carried across all modes, measured in million tonne-km (mntkm) of 5.4%
during
2009-2013. BMI’s composite score for Lithuania’s
freight transport business environment is 64.3 out of a
theoretical
maximum of 100, which places the country at a mid-point in the European
region.
For the 2009-2013 forecast period, we expect the transport and
communications sector to outpace the
economy as a whole, but by a very
small margin. It will achieve average annual growth of 4.8%, versus
4.7%
for overall GDP. The total value of transport and communications GDP will rise
to US$8.3bn in
nominal terms by 2013, representing 13.6% of
Lithuania’s GDP.
| 
View Cart
