Abstract
According to local newspaper The Star, Malaysia' s Penang Port is forecasting
flat growth in 2009 as a
result of the global economic downturn, which is
affecting the country' s manufacturing sector. The port
registered a
decline in cargo volumes of 6.84% month-on-month (m-o-m) in October, 28.99%
in
November and 12.21% in December 2008. BMI believes the falling volumes
are due to the global
economic downturn, which is having an impact on
shipping companies worldwide and in turn affecting
ports. We are therefore
expecting a tough year for Malaysian shipping. In this, our newly released
Malaysia Freight Transport Report, we predict that in terms of freight
carried, shipping traffic will grow
by an average of 3.6% per year in
2009-2013. The total number of containers handled at Malaysia’s
ports
will grow more strongly at 6.2% per year.
We now expect total
freight carried across all moded, measured in mn tonnes-km (mntkm), to grow by
an
annual average of 3.9% over the 2009-2013 period. Total road freight
turnover is expected to grow at an
average annual rate of 4.1% in
2009-2013. We expect rail freight traffic to perform reasonably well, with
annual growth averaging 3.9%. Air freight be set back by a troubled two years
in 2009 and 2010, but will
nevertheless achieve a five-year average of
3.8% per annum. Pipeline throughput will be somewhat
higher at 4.4%.
Malaysia scores reasonably on our overall freight rating at 51.7 out of a
theoretical
maximum of 100, having slipped a little because of a fall in
its country risk rating and somewhat higher
political uncertainty. It is
nevertheless at the higher end of the spectrum in terms of expected
freight
transport growth and scores well as far as long-term economic
risk, transport infrastructure growth and
the regulatory and competitive
environments are concerned.
For the 2009-2013 forecast period, we expect
the transport and communications sector to continue
outpacing the economy
as a whole by a small margin. It will achieve average annual growth of
3.9%
versus 3.6% for overall GDP. The total value of the transport and
communications sector will rise to
US$24.9bn in nominal terms by 2013,
representing 7.5% of Malaysia’s GDP.
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