Abstract
The new Malaysia Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account
for 1.43% of Asia
Pacific regional power generation by 2013, with a
relatively constant generation surplus that should result
in a broadly
balanced domestic market. BMI’s Asia Pacific power generation assumption
for 2008 is
7,101 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 3.7%
over the previous year. We are forecasting
an increase in regional
generation to 9,198TWh by 2013, representing a rise of 34.00%.
Asia
Pacific thermal power generation in 2008 was an estimated 5,568TWh, accounting
for 78.41% of the
total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast
for 2013 is 7,043Wh, implying 30.20% growth that
reduces the market share
of thermal generation to 76.57% – thanks partly to environmental
concerns that
should be promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and
nuclear generation. Malaysia’s thermal generation
in 2008 was an
estimated 99TWh, or 1.78% of the regional total. By 2013, the country is
expected to
account for 1.71% of thermal generation.
For Malaysia, gas
is the dominant fuel, accounting for 44.3% of 2007 primary energy demand
(PED),
followed by oil at 41.1%, coal at 12.1% and hydro with a 2.5% share
of PED. Regional energy demand is
forecast to reach 4,881mn tonnes of oil
equivalent (toe) by 2013, representing 32.00% growth from the
estimated
2008 level. Malaysia’s estimated 2008 market share of 1.50% is set to
fall to 1.44% by 2013.
Malaysia’s estimated 7.0TWh of hydro demand
in 2008 is forecast to reach 9.7TWh by 2013, with its
share of the Asia
Pacific hydro market falling from 0.78% to 0.71% over the period. There is no
nuclear
industry in Malaysia.
Malaysia is now ranked equal fourth with
Vietnam in BMI’s updated Power Business Environment
rating, thanks
to its low level of energy import dependence and excellent power consumption
growth
prospects. Certain country risk factors offset some of the industry
strength, but the country is in a good
position in the near-term to keep
clear of Indonesia below.
BMI is now forecasting Malaysian real GDP growth
averaging 3.48% per annum (pa) between 2008 and
2013, with a 2009 growth
estimate of 0.50%. Population is expected to expand from 27.0mn to 29.2mn
over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita
forecast to increase by 45%
and 10% respectively. The country’s
power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated
95TWh in 2008
to 113TWh by the end of the forecast period, leaving surplus generation rising
from an
estimated 14TWh in 2008 to 18TWh in 2013, assuming 3.8% annual
growth in electricity generation.
Between 2007 and 2018, we are
forecasting an increase in Malaysian electricity generation of 50.6%,
which is mid-range for the Asia Pacific region. This equates to 20.5% in the
2013-2018 period, down
from 25.0% in 2008-2013. PED growth is set to fall
from 22.2% in 2008-2013 to 14.9%, representing
40.5% for the entire
forecast period. An increase of 120% in hydro-power use during 2007-2018 is a
key
element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to
rise by 50% between 2007 and
2018. More details of the long-term BMI power
forecasts can be found in the Appendix of this report.
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