Abstract
Back in December we questioned whether the government' s ambitious US$141bn
national infrastructure
programme (a five-year initiative that began in
2007) could proceed in an environment characterised by
global risk
aversion and tight credit conditions. This view has been endorsed by recent
news that the
US$5bn Punta Colonet port project has now been postponed,
and in our view is unlikely to go ahead for
the remainder of 2009, as the
private sector appears either unwilling or unable to put up its share of
the
funding.
Since the last quarter, we have made two major changes to
the data in this report. First, we have – to the
greatest extent
possible – incorporated hard figures that have been made available by
the regulator(s) and
trade association(s) in each country. In some cases,
therefore, we have begun to include numbers that
pertain to the
development of the insurance sector through the early stages of the global
financial crisis.
Second, we have extended our forecasts out to 2013. In
all cases, we have reviewed the key growth
drivers – non-life
penetration and life density – incorporated in our forecasts.
The
global financial crisis is likely to affect the various segments of the global
insurance industry in
different ways. In many countries, especially in
Europe, the coming recession points to softness in the
non-life segment.
In many cases, the numbers of policies may fall and there should be
downwards
pressure on premiums. By contrast, the main problem for the life
segment in almost all countries is the
extreme volatility of financial
markets. Over the longer term, however, the fortunes of life insurance
will
likely recover thanks to the secular growth of organised savings in
most countries. China – where the
larger insurance companies
continue to achieve double-digit growth in premium income – is a
good
example of this. Some particular niches should also do well in the
current environment, such as legal
liability insurance.
In Latin
America, we profile 21 companies. These are AEGON, AGF, AIG, Allianz, AXA,
Cardif,
CNP, Generali, HDI-Talanx, HSBC Insurance, ING, Liberty Mutual,
MAPFRE, MetLife, New
York Life, Prudential Financial, QBE, RSA, the
Hartford, Principal Financial and Zurich.
Over the course of 2008,
actual/estimated total premiums in Mexico rose by 16% to MXN214bn.
Non-life premiums rose by 18% to MXN126bn, while life premiums rose by 14% to
MXN88bn.
Between now and the end of the forecast period, we expect that
annual non-life premiums will grow by
MXN55bn while annual life premiums
should grow by MXN42bn.
Growth in non-life premiums should be driven by
the general growth of nominal GDP plus a rise in nonlife
penetration from
the current level of 0.8% to 1.3%.
Growth in Life premiums should be
driven by the change in the overall population and a rise in life
density
from US$67.45 to US$120.00 per capita.
BMI' s Insurance Business
Environment Rating is 65.
| 
View Cart
