Abstract
The new Mexico Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account
for 23.88% of Latin
America regional power generation by 2013, with a
developing power surplus available for export to the
US. BMI’s Latin
America power generation estimate for 2008 is 1,125 terawatt hours (twh),
representing
an increase of 3.4% over the previous year. We are
forecasting growth in regional generation to 1,367twh
by 2013,
representing a rise of 21.5%.
Latin American thermal power generation in
2008 is estimated by BMI at 438twh, accounting for 38.9%
of the total
electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2013 is 561twh, implying
28.1% growth,
increasing the market share of thermal generation to 41.0%
– in spite of environmental concerns that
should be promoting
renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear power. Mexico’s thermal
generation in
2008 was an estimated 221twh, or 50.35% of the regional
total. By 2013, the country is expected to
account for 49.62% of thermal
generation.
For Mexico, oil is the dominant fuel, accounting for 57.4% of
2007 primary energy demand (PED),
followed by gas at 31.3%, coal at 5.9%,
hydro-electric energy at 3.9% and nuclear energy with a 1.5%
share of PED.
Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 744mn toe by 2013, representing
18.9%
growth. Mexico’s market share in 2008 was an estimated 25.57%,
easing to a forecast 24.55% by 2013.
The country’s estimated 10.5twh
of nuclear demand in 2008 is forecast to reach 13.0twh by 2013, with its
share of the Latin America nuclear market easing from 34.31% to 33.33% over
the period.
Mexico is still ranked last, just below Venezuela, in
BMI’s newly revised Power Business Environment
rating, in spite of
its considerable market size and reasonable growth prospects. The lack of
privatisation
progress, poorly developed competitive landscape and
demanding regulatory environment conspire with
certain country risk
factors to depress the score and keep Mexico at the foot of the league table
for the
foreseeable future.
BMI is now forecasting Mexican real GDP
growth averaging 2.45% per annum between 2008 and 2013,
with the 2009
forecast being a decline of 1.30%. Population is expected to expand from
106.7mn to
110.8mn over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity
consumption per capita forecast to increase
by 38% and 15% respectively.
The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an
estimated 207twh in 2008 to 247twh by the end of the forecast period,
providing a rising net export
capacity, assuming 4.3% annual growth in
electricity generation.
Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting an
increase in Mexican electricity generation of 58.7%,
which is above
average for the Latin America region. This equates to 23.4% in the 2013-2018
period,
down from 25.1% in 20087-2013. PED growth is set to grow from
14.2% in 2008-2013 to 17.0% in
2013-2018, representing 37.5% for the
entire forecast period. An increase of 53.1% in hydro-power use
during
2007-18 is one key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is
forecast to rise by
60.0% between 2007 and 2018, with nuclear demand
rising by 53.9%. More details of the longer-term
BMI power forecasts can
be found in the Appendix of this report.
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