Abstract
The new Pakistan Power Report forecasts Pakistan will account for 1.35% of
Asia Pacific regional power
generation by 2013, with a stable theoretical
generation surplus before the country’s substantial
transmission
losses are taken into account. BMI’s Asia Pacific power generation
assumption for 2008 is
7,101 terawatt hours (twh), representing an
increase of 3.7% over the previous year. We are forecasting
an increase in
regional generation to 9,198twh by 2013, representing a rise of 34.00%.
Asia Pacific thermal power generation in 2008 was an estimated 5,568twh,
accounting for 78.41% of the
total electricity supplied in the region. Our
forecast for 2013 is 7,043twh, implying 30.20% growth that
reduces the
market share of thermal generation to 76.57% – thanks partly to
environmental concerns that
should be promoting renewables,
hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Pakistan’s thermal
generation
in 2008 was an estimated 63twh, or 1.13% of the regional total.
By 2013, the country is expected to still
account for 1.13% of thermal
generation.
For Pakistan, gas is the dominant fuel, accounting for 47.5%
of primary energy demand (PED) in 2007,
followed by oil at 30.7%,
hydro-electric energy at 12.9% and coal with a 7.9% share. Regional energy
demand is forecast to reach 4,881mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2013,
representing 32.00% growth
from the estimated 2008 level. Pakistan’s
estimated 2008 market share of 1.55% is set to ease to 1.44%
by 2013. The
country’s estimated 2.5twh of nuclear demand in 2008 is forecast to
reach 5.0twh by 2013,
with its share of the Asia Pacific nuclear market
rising from 0.47% to 0.76% over the period.
Pakistan is now ranked third
behind India in BMI’s updated Power Business Environment Rating,
thanks
to its relatively high level of renewables (mostly hydro)
generation and healthy power
consumption/energy demand growth prospects.
Several country risk factors offset some of the industry
strength, but the
country is in a good position to keep clear of Malaysia below.
BMI
forecasts Pakistan real GDP growth averaging 4.27% a year between 2008 and
2013, with the 2009
estimate at 2.50%. The population is expected to
expand from 161mn to 177mn, with per capita GDP and
electricity
consumption increasing by 54% and 11% respectively. Power consumption is
expected to
increase from an estimated 81twh in 2008 to 99twh by the end
of the forecast period, which provides a
relatively stable theoretical
generation surplus (before transmission losses etc), assuming 4.3% annual
growth in electricity generation.
Between 2007 and 2018, we are
forecasting an increase in Pakistani electricity generation of 63.2%,
which is mid-range for the Asia Pacific region. This equates to 27.2% in the
2013-2018 period, down
from 28.2% in 2008-2013. PED growth is set to
increase from 20.5% in 2008-2013 to 25.8%,
representing 51.7% for the
entire forecast period. An increase of 51% in hydro-power use during 2007-
2018 is a key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is
forecast to rise by 57% between
2007 and 2018, with nuclear usage up 407%
from a low base. More details of the long-term BMI power
forecasts can be
found at the end of this report.
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