Abstract
The new Philippines Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will
account for just 0.84% of
Asia Pacific regional power generation by 2013,
with a modest generation surplus that provides a
theoretical export
capability. BMI’s Asia Pacific power generation assumption for 2008 is
7,101 terawatt
hours (twh), representing an increase of 3.7% over the
previous year. We are forecasting an increase in
regional generation to
9,198twh by 2013, representing a rise of 34.00%.
Asia Pacific thermal
power generation in 2008 was an estimated 5,568twh, accounting for 78.41% of
the
total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2013 is
7,043twh, implying 30.20% growth that
reduces the market share of thermal
generation to 76.57% – thanks partly to environmental concerns
promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. The
Philippines’ thermal generation in
2008 was an estimated 54.3twh, or
0.98% of the regional total. By 2013, the country is expected to
account
for 0.94% of thermal generation in the region.
For the Philippines, oil is
the dominant fuel, accounting for an estimated 55.9% of 2007 primary
energy
demand (PED), followed by coal at 23.9%, gas at 12.4% and
hydro-electric energy at 7.8%. Regional
energy demand is forecast to reach
4,881mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2013, representing 32.00%
growth
from the estimated 2008 level. The Philippines’ estimated 2008 market
share of 0.70% is set to
ease to 0.68% by 2013. The country’s
estimated 8.7twh of hydro demand in 2008 is forecast to reach
11.0twh by
2013, with its share of the Asia Pacific hydro market falling from 0.97% to
0.80% over the
period.
The Philippines is ranked ninth in BMI’s
updated Power Business Environment rating, in spite of its
relatively high
level of renewables usage and healthy energy demand growth prospects. Country
risk
factors offset much of the industry strength, but the country should
be able to keep South Korea at bay
and potentially challenge Hong Kong for
eighth place.
BMI forecasts the Philippines’ real GDP growth
averaging 4.0% a year between 2008 and 2013, with the
2009 estimate at
2.8%. Population is expected to expand from 89.7mn to 98.4mn over the period,
with
GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to
increase by 39% and 8% respectively.
The country’s power consumption
is expected to increase from an estimated 54.3twh in 2008 to 64.6twh
by
the end of the forecast period, leaving theoretical surplus generation rising
from 8.9twh in 2008 to
13.1twh in 2013, assuming 4.5% annual growth in
electricity generation.
Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting an
increase in the Philippines’ electricity generation of
60.4%, which
is around the middle of the range for the Asia Pacific region. This equates to
23.0% in the
2013-2018 period, down from 30.4% in 2008-2013. PED growth is
set to decrease from 33.7% in 2008-
2013 to 19.3%, representing 59.5% for
the entire forecast period. An increase of 56.6% in hydropower
use during
2007-2018 is a key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is
forecast to rise
by 60.8% between 2007 and 2018. More details of our
long-term power forecasts are at the end of this
report.
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