Abstract
In time for the launch of BMI's infrastructure Q109 reports, we have revised our construction data. The
data has been modified from 2008 onwards. This initiative stems from new methodology being
introduced in our forecasting method and aims to increase the relevance and reliability of BMI's
infrastructure data. BMI strives to be able to offer five year industry forecasts for the Poland Q109
reports however that data is not currently available, but it will be updated in time for Q209. BMI
therefore will make its predictions based on data sets from 2009-2012.
For 2009 BMI forecasts that Poland's construction industry will be worth PLN220.45bn (US$95.39bn).
The sectors value is forecast to continue increasing and we expect it to be worth approximately
PLN290.38bn (US$130.38bn) in 2012. We note that that growth in Poland's construction sector slowed
during 2007 and 2008. We expect it to pick up again in 2009, with a growth of 6.50% predicted. This
growth trend is expected to continue to the end of our forecast period (2012) although the growth figures
will not be as high as those that Poland was experiencing in 2005 and 2006.
Poland's construction industry makes up a considerable percentage of the country's GDP. In 2009 the
sector is expected to account for 16.09% of Poland's GDP and its percentage is set to increase over the
next for years to reach 17.50% of total GDP in 2012. These figures display the importance of the
construction sector to Poland's economy.
BMI believes that the construction sector, not just domestically in the Poland, but worldwide will be
buffeted by the global economic downturn and will lead to investors tightening their belts, leaving less
money to go towards funding infrastructure related projects, especially those in the real estate sphere.
This could see a serious decline in the number of companies available to participate in Private Public
Partnership (PPP) projects, which will lead to delays and in some case cancellations of proposed
infrastructure schemes.
In relation to Poland, BMI has no news of specific projects that may be affected by the economic
downturn, it could be a case of watch this space. BMI however is confident that the big infrastructure
projects launched in 2008 especially those that have been implemented to support the country's role as
host for the 2012 Euro football tournament will go ahead, though the possibility of delays has to be
factored in. The economic downturn could however prove to be beneficial for Poland's construction
sector, the country has faced labour constraints since joining the EU, when its workers headed into
western Europe for the lucrative construction markets of Germany, Spain and the UK. These workers are
now returning and will boost the number of labourers available for work on the country's infrastructure
projects.
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