Abstract
In BMI’s Q209 Poland Infrastructure Report we have new historical data
going to 2007, with our
forecast period running from 2008-2013. In 2009
BMI believes that Poland’s construction industry will
contract by
3.53%, reaching a value of PLN234.72bn (US$79.80bn)
Poland’s
infrastructure industry saw much activity in late 2008 and early 2009 across
the sectors. The key
driver behind this is the country’s co-hosting
of the UEFA European Football Championship in 2012
(EURO 2012). In
preparation for the event the country has been working to construct stadia and
sporting
facilities, as well as upgrading transport and tourist
infrastructure.
As a result, most of the activity has been seen in the
transport sector. The largest road contract currently
in the country was
awarded in January 2009 to a consortium including Cintra, Ferrovial Agroman
and
Budimex, all of which are part of Spain’s Ferrovial Group. The
A1 highway concession represents a
total investment of US$2.72bn.
Poland’s Budimex has won a number of contracts in the transport
sector,
as has Poland’s Motostal-Polimex, which was awarded a rail
contract for EUR250mn as part of a
consortium, and a US$306mn road
contract.
The power sector has also seen a number of significant
developments. Most notably, the government has
given the go-ahead to
Polska Grupa Energetyczna (PGE), Poland’s largest energy producer, to
develop
Poland’s nuclear power sector. Poland does not currently
have any nuclear capacity; however, PGE will
be undertaking construction
of two plants with a total capacity of 3,000MW, at an estimated cost of
US$19-24bn. In addition, a number of new coal-fired plants are under
construction, and Poland’s
renewables sector continues to grow, with
the announcement of wind projects in the country.
The construction sector
has been dominated by the building of stadia for EURO 2012. A US$130mn
contract was awarded to a consortium led by Hydrobudowa Polska, including PBG
and Alpine
Consturction Polska, for the modernisation of Poznan Stadium.
In addition, tenders for the National
Stadium in Warsaw, the Baltic Arena
in Gdansk and the Wroclaw stadium have all been progressing, with
a number
of international and domestic firms in the running. However, there are still
concerns over the
country’s ability to finish all of the work in
time for the tournament.
BMI believes that Poland’s construction
industry will be hit hard in 2009, providing further bad news for
tournament preparation. The economic climate of a decline in demand for
exports and a reduction in
consumer-led growth will have a knock-on effect
on the construction industry. BMI is anticipating the
country’s
economy to contract by 1.2% in 2009, before returning to positive growth from
2010.
Consequently, for 2009 we forecast a contraction of 3.53%, down from
growth of 13% estimated in 2008
in Poland’s construction industry.
However, with a strong drive from the government to invest in the
country’s infrastructure and tournament preparations we believe that the
contraction will be short-lived,
with positive real growth returning from
2010 until the end of our forecast period.
In BMI’s Q209 Poland
Infrastructure Report we have included our new Infrastructure Project
Finance
Ratings. The ratings provide a globally-comparative,
numerically-based assessment of the risks facing
major infrastructure
projects, which will in turn affect the source, availability and cost of
finance. Of the
20 countries assessed in Europe, Poland ranks 10th with a
score of 60.3.
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