Abstract
The new Poland Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 7.8% of Central and
Eastern European (CEE) regional power generation by 2013, and remain a net exporter of electricity to
neighbouring states. CEE power generation in 2007 was 2,053 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an
increase of 1.9% over the previous year. We are forecasting a rise in regional generation to 2,540TWh by
2013, representing an increase of 23.7%.
CEE thermal power generation in 2007 was 1,294TWh, accounting for 63.0% of the total electricity
supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2013 is 1,536TWh, implying 18.7% growth that reduces only
slightly the market share of thermal generation to 60.5% - in spite of environmental concerns that should
be promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Poland's thermal generation in 2007
was 156TWh, or 12.1% of the regional total. By 2013, the country is expected to account for 12.2% of
thermal generation.
For Poland, coal is the dominant fuel, accounting for 60.5% of primary energy demand (PED), followed
by oil at 25.7%, gas at 13.1% and hydro with a 0.7% share of PED. Regional energy demand is forecast to
reach 1,672mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2013, representing 22.8% growth over the period.
Poland's 2007 market share of 6.9% is set to rise to 7.1% by 2013. Poland has no operational nuclear
generating capacity and is not expected to build a new plant during the forecast period. It makes no
contribution to regional nuclear energy consumption.
Poland is now ranked first ahead of Romania in BMI's updated Power Business Environment rating,
thanks to its healthy power consumption growth outlook, substantial installed capacity and power
generation, competitive landscape and progress towards full power market deregulation. Country risk
factors complement the many industry strengths, and the country has the medium-term potential to keep
Romania at bay - although Kazakhstan will prove eventually to be a fierce competitor for regional
leadership.
BMI is forecasting Polish real GDP growth averaging 4.5% per annum between 2007 and 2013, although
the 2008 estimate is 5.4%. Population is expected to slip from 38.0mn to 37.9mn over the period, and
GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita are forecast to increase significantly. The country's
power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 141.7TWh in 2007 to 179.9TWh by the end
of the forecast period, with theoretical export capability remaining around 17.6TWh, assuming 2.9%
annual growth in electricity generation.
Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Polish electricity generation of 40.4%, which
is middle of the range for the CEE region. This equates to 13.1% in the 2013-2018 period, down from
24.1% in 2007-2013. PED growth is set to fall from 25.1% in 2007-2013 to 12.6% in the 2013-2018
period, representing 40.8% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 283.0% in hydro-power use
during 2007-2018 is a key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by
35.6% between 2007 and 2018. More detailed long-term forecasts can be found in the appendix of this
report.
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