Abstract
The new Poland Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account
for 7.85% of Central
and Eastern European (CEE) regional power generation
by 2013, and remain a net exporter of electricity
to neighbouring states.
CEE power generation in 2008 was an estimated 2,111 terawatt hours (twh),
representing an increase of 2.9% over the previous year. We are forecasting a
rise in regional generation
to 2,461twh by 2013, representing an increase
of 16.6%.
CEE thermal power generation in 2008 was an estimated 1,323twh,
accounting for 62.7% of the total
electricity supplied in the region. Our
forecast for 2013 is 1,474twh, implying 11.4% growth that reduces
only
slightly the market share of thermal generation to 59.9% – in spite of
environmental concerns
promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear
generation. Poland’s thermal generation in 2008 was
an estimated
159twh, or 12.02% of the regional total. By 2013, the country is expected to
account for
12.44% of thermal generation.
For Poland, coal is the
dominant fuel, accounting for 60.5% of primary energy demand (PED),
followed
by oil at 25.7%, gas at 13.1% and hydro with a 0.7% share of PED.
Regional energy demand is forecast to
reach 1,630mn toe by 2013,
representing 16.4% growth over the period. Poland’s 2008 market share of
an
estimated 6.96% is set to rise to 6.97% by 2013. Poland has no
operational nuclear generating capacity
and is not expected to build a new
plant during the forecast period. It makes no contribution to regional
nuclear energy consumption.
Poland is now ranked second behind Romania in
BMI’s updated Power Business Environment rating,
thanks to its
healthy power consumption growth outlook, substantial installed capacity and
power
generation, competitive landscape and progress towards full power
market deregulation. Country risk
factors complement the many industry
strengths, and the country has the medium-term potential to
challenge
Romania and retake first place – although Kazakhstan will prove
eventually to be a fierce
competitor for regional leadership.
BMI is
now forecasting Polish real GDP growth averaging 3.17% per annum between 2008
and 2013,
although the 2009 estimate is for a decline of 0.4%. Population
is expected to slip from 38.0mn to 37.9mn
over the period, and GDP per
capita and electricity consumption per capita are forecast to increase by
25% and 14% respectively. The country’s power consumption is expected to
increase from an estimated
149twh in 2008 to 170twh by the end of the
forecast period, with theoretical export capability rising
above 23twh,
assuming 33.3% annual growth in electricity generation.
Between 2007 and
2018, we are forecasting an increase in Polish electricity generation of
37.9%, which
is middle of the range for the CEE region. This equates to
13.7% in the 2013-2018 period, down from
18.6% in 2008-2013. PED growth is
set to fall from 16.5% in 2008-2013 to 12.6% in the 2013-2018
period,
representing 35.5% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 283% in
hydro-power use during
2007-2018 is a key element of generation growth.
Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 33%
between 2007 and 2018.
More detailed long-term forecasts can be found towards the end of this
report.
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