Abstract
time for the launch of BMI's infrastructure Q109 reports, we have revised our construction data. The
data has been modified from 2008 onwards. This initiative stems from new methodology being
introduced in our forecasting method and aims to increase the relevance and reliability of BMI's
infrastructure data. BMI strives to be able to offer five-year industry forecasts for the Romania Q109
reports; however, that data is not currently available, but it will be updated in time for Q209. BMI will
therefore make its predictions based on data sets from 2009-2012.
For 2009 BMI forecasts that Romania's construction industry will be worth RON32.62bn (US$13.31bn).
The sector's value is forecast to continue increasing and we expect it to be worth approximately
RON43.13bn (US$18.12bn) in 2012. We note that a trend of slower growth in Romania's construction
sector is starting to develop over this forecast period. In 2007 Romania's construction sector reached a
peak year-on-year growth of 13.19%, in 2009 we expect slower growth of just 8.72% and this slower
growth is expected to continue over the mid-term with construction industry growth for 2012 predicted to
be 4.26%.
Romania's construction industry is forecast to account for 6.05% of the country's total GDP in 2009. The
industry is expected to employ 0.75mn workers in 2009 and this figure is expected to grow to 0.92mn in
2012. This growth is echoed in the increases that are expected within the percentage of construction
workers as a total of Romania's workforce. In 2009 we estimate that construction industry employees will
account for 8.12% of Romania's total workforce. We forecast that this will increase to 10.03% in 2012.
BMI believes that the construction sector, not just domestically in Romania, but worldwide will be
buffeted by the global economic downturn and will lead to investors tightening their belts, leaving less
money to go towards funding infrastructure related projects, especially those in the real estate sphere.
This could see a serious decline in the number of companies available to participate in Private Public
Partnership (PPP) projects, which will lead to delays and in some case cancellations of proposed
infrastructure schemes.
In relation to Romania, BMI has no news of specific projects that may be affected by the economic
downturn, it could be a case of watch this space. BMI however is confident that the big infrastructure
projects launched in 2008 such as the considerable number of road projects that the country pledged to
realise will move ahead, but perhaps at a slower pace than originally announced.
In BMI's Q109 Romanian Infrastructure Report, we have introduced our new Project Finance Ratings.
Romania ranks 18th out of 20 countries rated in Europe.
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