Abstract
A critical issue for Serbia’s security in 2008 was its position on the
former province of Kosovo. Serbia
lost control of Kosovo after a NATO-led
military campaign in 1999, to stop a two-year conflict there
between
Serbian forces and an ethnic Albanian rebellion. After nine years under
international control, the
Albanian administration in Kosovo declared its
independence in February 2008 and the debate on how to
respond led to the
collapse of the existing Belgrade administration in March. Following elections
in May
a new government was formed as an alliance including the
pro-Western Democratic Party and its one
time opponent, the Socialist
Party, formerly led by the late Slobodan Milošević. The new ruling
coalition
set itself two key goals: membership of the European Union and
rejection of Kosovo independence. Many
observers, including the Serbian
opposition parties, argued that these two goals were mutually
incompatible, given that a majority of EU states had during the course of 2008
formally recognised the
independence of Kosovo.
In December the
opposition parties sought to bring a no-confidence motion against the
government over
its Kosovo policy but it was seen as unlikely to succeed,
as they could not command a majority within the
250-seat legislature. The
opposition parties were arguing from a nationalist position and accusing
the
government of abandoning Kosovo by agreeing to the deployment of an EU
police and justice mission in
the territory (known as EULEX). The
government had at first rejected the EU mission proposal earlier in
2008
but changed its position after the terms of the deployment were changed to
keep police, judiciary
and customs in Serb-dominated areas of Kosovo under
a United Nations umbrella. The same institutions
would come under Kosovan
control in Albanian dominated areas.
Despite the bloody conflicts of the
1990s and the often uneasy peace that followed, in recent years it
became
clear that the process of Balkan fragmentation had not necessarily run its
full course – with
important implications for Serbian defence and
security. In 2006 Serbia and Montenegro, the remaining
rump of what was
once Yugoslavia, split into two separate states, a division which took place
peacefully.
Kosovo’s declaration of independence followed in early
2008. This posed a serious dilemma for Serbia,
caught between accepting
the new realities and trying to fight a rearguard action against them.
There
remained a danger of a new ‘domino effect’ that would
heighten ethnic and regional tensions among
small Balkan states, each
lacking the size or the economies of scale to develop efficient and
sustainable
defence industries of their own.
Following the fall of
Slobodan Milošević and the re-integration of Serbia into the
international
community, the security situation improved significantly.
Nonetheless, continued uncertainty over the
status of Kosovo, problems
with the ethnic Albanian minority in southern Serbia and trans-national
organised crime in the Balkans have all contributed to continued
instability.
The Serbian and Montenegrin defence industries were in a
state of flux following the union’s split. They
had, however, begun
to continue in the same direction as the union prior to the split. The union
was keen
to reform and modernise its armed forces and both new states are
seeking to continue this trend. However,
the lack of consensus in the
political elite, as well as some reluctance within the military itself, has
led to
only slow and tentative progress. Under the split, Serbia
maintained the membership of international
organisations. Montenegro is
now working towards adjusting its armed forces to meet NATO standards.
The
military industrial complex was already struggling to recover lost production
capacity and potentially
lucrative contracts, after the destruction of
recent wars and international arms embargoes – the split is
likely
to only exasperate the struggle for the medium term. As they find their feet
both defence industries
will have to attempt to increase competitiveness
on the foreign market through the separation of civilian
and military
programmes, working towards cost-effectiveness.
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