Abstract
Relations between Slovakia and its neighbour Hungary were tense at various
points in 2008, with the
treatment of the Hungarian-speaking minority in
Slovakia (which represents around 10% of the
population) a point of
contention between the two countries. Bratislava also had concerns about
the
treatment of Slovak speakers in Hungary. Hungarian Prime Minister
Ferenc Gyurcsany and his Slovak
opposite number, Robert Fico, met in the
border town of Komarno in November and pledged to promote
‘good
neighbourly relations’, while opposing all forms of extremism,
nationalism and intolerance.
However, both men also disagreed, with Fico
accusing Gyurcsany of not doing enough to stop Hungarian
radical groups
‘exporting fascism and nationalism’ to his country. Earlier in the
month Slovak police had
arrested over 20 Hungarian far-right activists
after they marched through Slovak villages wearing
military-style
uniforms. Speaking at the same news conference Gyurcsany countered that
‘many of us
think in Hungary that Slovak politics is not only
flirting with nationalism but has become engaged to it’.
The
far-right Slovak National Party (SNS) has been part of Fico’s ruling
coalition since elections in 2006;
one of its main policy priorities is
the defence of national culture and identity. The Slovakian Prime
Minister
said he would distance himself from any SNS rhetoric that might be seen as
defaming Hungary
or its politicians but at the same time served notice
that the composition of his government was not a
matter for neighbours to
criticise or influence. ‘Slovakia is a sovereign country and the
Slovak
government will be created in Bratislava based on election results
and nobody will interfere, neither
Brussels, not Washington, Moscow or
Budapest’ Fico said. The tension between the two countries was
also
expressed in sport. Police beat Hungarian soccer fans at a game in Slovakia,
which led to protest
demonstration in Budapest, where the Slovak flag was
burnt.
Slovakia’s underlying defence and security position in 2008
remained strong, as reflected in our ratings.
The coalition government
under Prime Minister Robert Fico had a comfortable majority and was doing
reasonably well in the opinion polls despite concerns over slower economic
growth in 2009. EU and
NATO membership underpin Slovakian security; there
are no known domestic terrorist organisations.
There are of course, some
issues of concern. As noted, relations with the ethnic Hungarian community
remain tense; nationalist sentiment on both sides can shade into chauvinism
and even racism – a danger
also present in relations with the Roma
minorities. BMI takes the view that these dangers will be kept
under
control not least because of the country’s membership of the EU, which
imposes a number of
obligations in terms of the observation of human
rights.
Since entry into NATO, Slovakia has been undertaking a significant
force modernisation and reduction
programme, which is taking up much of
the defence budget. Although progressing, the process is costly
and future
alliance commitments may strain the armed forces and their budget. One example
is the
pressing need to upgrade the military air transport fleet.
Slovakia’s professionalization programme is
proving successful; the
Slovakian army became fully professional in January 2006 after mandatory
national service ended in December 2005. The Slovak defence industry has
undergone a protracted
transition; a downsized industry is in a good
position to seek out new markets, while further privatisation
and
co-operation agreements between larger Slovakian firms and multinationals are
likely.
Although Slovakia is considerably cushioned and supported in many
aspects by NATO and the EU,
Prime Minister Fico will have to act carefully
to maintain the country’s present progress. So far Slovakia
has
mastered a transition from a centrally planned economy to a modern market
economy. Militarily,
Slovakia has to modernise to adopt NATO and EU
standards of equipment and training, which requires
funds that are not
always easy to find in the current economic climate.
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