Abstract
Slovenia has made great progress during the 16 years since its declaration of
independence. Politically, it
is relatively stable, a position confirmed
by the uneventful election of a new centre-left president, Danilo
Turk, in
November 2007. The centre-right administration of Prime Minister Janez Jansa
faces
parliamentary elections late in 2008. Economically, Slovenia has
bettered the performance of any other
former Yugoslav state and joined the
eurozone at the beginning of 2007. It has stable relations with most
of
its neighbours and is driving to improve relations with the US and Western
Europe.
The Slovene military is currently in a period of transition as it
adapts to its membership of the NATO
alliance. Its small armed forces are
embarked upon a process of professionalization, although restrictions
on
the defence budget are hindering the modernisation programme. Slovenia is
taking measures to
increase the international deployments of its armed
forces and will contribute to NATO rapid response
forces and European
battle groups, although public opposition to the Iraq war has led to a
cautious
approach to the US-led ‘war on terrorism’.
Although the defence industry has stabilised from what appeared to be a
terminal free-fall, it needs to
seek export markets rapidly. Multinational
investment remains a distant hope but the reliance of the
majority of
companies on civilian products should see their survival, albeit perhaps
without their defence
product services. A long-term trend of increased
military expenditure is expected, in order to meet NATO
force
modernisation requirements. The arms trade within Slovenia is minuscule, with
imports rarely rising
above 0.5% of total imports and exports barely
registering for most years. This situation is unlikely to
change for the
most part, although accession to NATO may encourage purchases of minor
equipment in
order to bring the military into line with the rest of the
pact’s forces in communications and air defence.
Exports are
expected to rise marginally as Slovene companies aggressively market their
goods.
Slovenia’s stability stems from its membership of NATO and
the EU which create something of a
political, economic and security buffer
to any threats to state sovereignty. Slovenia is building up
relations
with its partners from multinational organisations but these organisations are
placing restrictions
on its fiscal policies, especially with regard to its
military expenditure. In the wake of these restrictions,
Slovenia is
struggling to modernise its small armed forces.
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