Abstract
The new Thailand Power Report forecasts that Thailand will account for 1.88%
of Asia Pacific regional
power generation by 2013, with a broadly balanced
supply/demand picture. BMI’s Asia Pacific power
generation
assumption for 2008 is 7,101 terawatt hours (twh), representing an increase of
3.7% over the
previous year. We are forecasting an increase in regional
generation to 9,198twh by 2013, representing a
rise of 34.00%.
Asia
Pacific thermal power generation in 2008 was an estimated 5,568twh, accounting
for 78.41% of the
total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast
for 2013 is 7,043twh, implying 30.20% growth that
reduces the market share
of thermal generation to 76.57% – thanks partly to environmental
concerns that
should be promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and
nuclear generation. Thailand’s thermal generation
in 2008 was an
estimated 140twh, or 2.52% of the regional total. By 2013, the country is
expected to
account for 2.31% of thermal generation.
For Thailand, oil
is the dominant fuel, accounting for 50.3% of 2007 primary energy demand
(PED),
followed by gas at 37.2%, coal at 10.4% and hydro-electricity with
a 2.2% share of PED. Regional energy
demand is forecast to reach 4,881mn
tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2013, representing 32.00% growth
from
the estimated 2008 level. Thailand’s estimated 2008 market share of
2.26% is set to fall to 2.00% by
2013. Thailand’s estimated 8.3twh
of hydro-electric demand in 2008 is forecast to reach 9.2twh by 2013,
with
its share of the Asia Pacific hydro market falling from 0.93% to 0.67% over
the period. While there
is no existing or near-term nuclear capacity,
tentative plans exist for the construction of reactors, but there
is no
clear government policy.
Thailand is still ranked seventh above Hong Kong
in BMI’s updated Power Business Environment rating,
thanks largely
to its energy demand, plus moderate scores in most other categories. The
country is at little
risk from Hong Kong below it, and has the long-term
potential to catch Indonesia above it.
BMI is now forecasting Thai real
GDP growth averaging 2.57% per annum between 2008 and 2013, with
the 2009
estimate being a decline of 2.50%. Population is expected to expand from
64.3mn to 66.2mn
over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity
consumption per capita forecast to increase by 42%
and 9% respectively.
The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an
estimated 148twh
in 2008 to 166twh by the end of the forecast period,
requiring some power imports during periods of peak
demand, assuming 2.7%
annual growth in electricity generation.
Between 2007 and 2018, we are
forecasting an increase in Thai electricity generation of 44.80%, which is
near the top of the range for the Asia Pacific region. This equates to 23.42%
in the 2013-2018 period, up
from 17.32% in 2008-2013. PED growth is set to
decrease from 13.83% in 2008-2013 to 16.49%,
representing 32.60% for the
entire forecast period. Hydro generation is expected to rise by 23.39%
between 2007 and 2018, with thermal power generation forecast to increase by
46.12% over the same
period. More detailed long-term BMI power forecasts
can be found in the appendix of this report.
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