Abstract
The new Turkey Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account
for 9.39% of Central and
Eastern European (CEE) regional power generation
by 2013, and retain a theoretical surplus that is
consumed by system
losses and inefficiency. CEE power generation in 2008 was an estimated
2,111
terawatt hours (twh), representing an increase of 2.9% over the
previous year. We are forecasting a rise in
regional generation to
2,461twh by 2013, representing an increase of 16.6%.
CEE thermal power
generation in 2008 was an estimated 1,323twh, accounting for 62.7% of the
total
electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2013 is
1,474twh, implying 11.4% growth that reduces
only slightly the market
share of thermal generation to 59.9% – in spite of environmental
concerns
promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation.
Turkish thermal generation in 2008 was
an estimated 148twh, 11.2% of the
regional total. In 2013, it will account for 12.2% of thermal
generation.
For Turkey, gas was in 2007 the dominant fuel, accounting for
31.0% of primary energy demand (PED),
followed by oil at 30.6%, coal at
30.5%, with hydro having a 7.9% share of PED. Regional energy
demand is
forecast to reach 1,630mn toe by 2013, representing 16.4% growth over the
period. Turkey’s
estimated 2008 market share of 10.0% is set to ease
to 9.56% by 2013. Turkey plans long-term nuclear
power construction, but
currently makes no contribution to regional nuclear consumption.
Turkey
still shares fourth place with Russia in BMI’s updated Power Business
Environment Rating, but is
now three points behind Kazakhstan. It is hard
to see Turkey being able to catch up with the Caspian state
over the
medium to long term, and it may be unable to remain alongside Russia for long.
The current
score reflects the substantial size of the country’s
electricity market and infrastructure, a high proportion
of (mostly hydro)
renewables in the energy mix, average growth in PED and the region’s
most rapid rate
of population growth. Country risk factors to some extent
offset the industry scores.
BMI now forecasts Turkish real GDP growth
averaging 2.6% a year between 2008 and 2013, but a
decline of 3.3% is
expected in 2009. Total population is expected to rise from 71.3mn in 2008 to
75.6mn
by 2013, and GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita
are forecast to increase by 39% and
27% respectively. The country’s
power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 152twh in
2008
to 204twh by the end of the forecast period, while the theoretical power
generation surplus should
ease from an estimated 38twh in 2008 to a
forecast 28twh in 2013, assuming 3.3% annual growth in
electricity
generation.
Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in
Turkish electricity generation of 43.3%, which
is above average for the
CEE region. This equates to 18.5% in the 2013-2018 period, down from 21.6%
in 2008-2013. PED growth is set to fall from 17.8% in 2008-2013 to 10.6%
during 2013-2018,
representing 32.3% for the entire forecast period. An
increase of 86% in hydro-power use during 2007-
2018 is a key element of
generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 33%
between
2007 and 2018. Details of BMI’s long-term forecasts can be
found at the end of this report.
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