Abstract
The new Ukraine Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account
for 9.43% of Central
and Eastern Europe (CEE)’s regional power
generation by 2013, and remain a modest net exporter of
electricity to
neighbouring states. CEE power generation in 2008 was an estimated 2,111
terawatt hours
(twh), representing an increase of 2.9% over the previous
year. We are forecasting a rise in regional
generation to 2,461twh by 2013
- representing an increase of 16.6%.
CEE thermal power generation in 2008
was an estimated 1,323twh, accounting for 62.7% of the total
electricity
supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2013 is 1,474twh, implying 11.4%
growth that reduces
only slightly the market share of thermal generation
to 59.9% – in spite of environmental concerns
promoting renewables,
hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Ukraine’s thermal generation
in 2008
was an estimated 92twh, or 7.0% of the regional total. By 2013,
the country is expected to account for
7.1% of thermal generation.
For
Ukraine, gas is the dominant fuel, in 2007 accounting for 42.8% of primary
energy demand (PED),
followed by coal at 28.9%, nuclear energy at 15.4%,
with oil having an 11.3% share of PED. Regional
energy demand is forecast
to reach 1,630mn toe by 2013, representing 16.4% growth over the period.
Ukraine’s estimated 2008 market share of 10.00% is set to ease to 9.56%
by 2013. Ukraine in 2008
accounted for an estimated 26.58% of regional
nuclear energy consumption, with its share down to
24.39% by 2013.
Ukraine retains last place behind even Hungary in BMI’s updated Power
Business Environment rating.
There is no reason to expect Ukraine to be
able to mount a challenge for promotion over the short to
medium term. The
current score reflects the considerable size of the country’s
electricity market and
infrastructure. Country risk factors offset the
respectable industry scores.
BMI is now forecasting Ukrainian real GDP
growth averaging 2.3% per annum between 2008 and 2013,
although the 2009
estimate is for a decline of 7.2%. Population is expected to contract from
46.1mn to
45.2mn over the period, but GDP per capita and electricity
consumption per capita are forecast to increase
by 26% and 6%
respectively. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase
from an estimated
192twh in 2008 to 200twh by the end of the forecast
period, while potential exports are expected to rise
from an estimated
8twh in 2008 to 33twh in 2013, assuming 3.0% annual growth in electricity
generation.
Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in
Ukrainian electricity generation of 31.5%,
which is towards the bottom of
the range for the CEE region. This equates to 10.4% in the 2013-2018
period, down from 16.1% in 2008-2013. PED growth is set to rise from 11.1% in
2008-2013 to 15.9%,
representing 32.7% for the entire forecast period. An
increase of 115.0% in hydro-power use during
2007-2018 is a key element of
generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 24.1%
between 2007 and 2018, with nuclear consumption up 29.7%. More detail of
BMI’s long-term forecasts
can be found towards the end of this
report.
| 
View Cart
