Abstract
The new UAE Power Report forecasts that the country will account for 6.64% of
Middle East and Africa
(MEA) power generation by 2013. BMI’s MEA
power generation estimate for 2008 is 1,178 terawatt
hours (twh),
representing an increase of 5.5% over the previous year. We are forecasting an
increase in
regional generation to 1,523twh by 2013, representing a rise
of 29.3% between 2008 and the end of the
period.
Thermal power
generation in 2008 is estimated by BMI at 1,100twh, accounting for 93.4% of
the total
electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2013 is
1,414twh, implying 35.7% growth that reduces
slightly the market share of
thermal generation to 92.8% – thanks in part to environmental concerns
that
should be promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear
generation. The UAE’s thermal generation
in 2008 was an estimated
78twh, or 7.05% of the regional total. By 2013, the country is expected to
account for 7.14% of thermal generation.
For the UAE, in 2007 gas was the
dominant fuel, accounting for 63.8% of primary energy demand (PED),
followed by oil at 36.2%. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 853mn
tonnes of oil equivalent
(toe) by 2013, representing 19.6% growth over the
period since 2008. The UAE’s estimated 2008 market
share of 9.26% is
set to climb to 9.70% by 2013.
The UAE is now ranked first in BMI’s
updated Power Business Environment rating, having overtaken
Egypt thanks
to its developed competitive landscape, privatisation progress, population and
power
consumption growth. The size of the power market is relatively small
and there remains a relatively high
level of regulation. The UAE is just
one point ahead of Egypt, so could once again face a challenge for
the top
slot. However, its stiffest long-term competition is likely to come from
Qatar.
BMI is now forecasting real GDP growth averaging 3.97% per annum
between 2008 and 2013, with the
2009 forecast being a decline of 0.90%.
Population is expected to expand from 4.70mn to 5.40mn over
the period to
2013, with GDP per capita and power consumption per capita forecast to
increase by 24%
and 15% respectively. The country’s power
consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 72twh
in 2008 to
95twh by the end of the forecast period, representing a broadly balanced
market if the country
delivers the assumed 6.1% annual growth in
electricity generation.
Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting an
increase in UAE electricity generation of 100.2%, which
is near the top of
the range for the MEA region. This equates to 40.3% in the 2013-2018 period,
up from
30.3% in 2008-2013. PED growth is set to increase from 25.3% in
2008-2013 to 33.2%, representing
80.8% for the entire forecast period.
Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 100.2% between
2007 and
2018. More details of the longer-term BMI power forecasts can be found in the
Appendix of
this report.
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