Abstract
In this report, BMI forecasts that Venezuela will account for 12.1% of Latin
America regional power
generation by 2013. BMI’s Latin America power
generation estimate for 2008 is 1,125 terawatt hours
(TWh), representing
an increase of 3.4% over the previous year. We are forecasting growth in
regional
generation to 1,367TWh by 2013, representing a rise of 21.5%.
Latin American thermal power generation in 2008 is estimated by BMI at 438TWh,
accounting for 38.9%
of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our
forecast for 2013 is 561TWh, implying 28.1% growth,
increasing the market
share of thermal generation to 41.0% – in spite of environmental
concerns that
should be promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and
nuclear power. Venezuela’s thermal generation in
2008 was an
estimated 35.4TWh, or 8.1% of the regional total. By 2013, the country is
expected to
account for 9.4% of thermal generation.
For Venezuela, oil
is the dominant fuel, accounting for 37.5% of 2007 primary energy demand
(PED),
followed by gas at 35.9%, and hydro-electric energy with a 26.6%
share of PED. Regional energy
demand is forecast to reach 744mn tonnes of
oil equivalent (toe) by 2013, representing 18.9% growth.
Venezuela’s
estimated 2008 market share of 11.9% is set to rise to 13.9% by 2013.
Venezuela is now ranked fifth ahead only of Mexico in BMI’s Power sector
Business Environment
rating, in spite of its likely energy demand growth,
considerable generating capacity and low level of
energy import
dependency. The under-developed competitive landscape, regulatory issues and
threat of
asset re-nationalisation conspire with country risk factors to
deliver a relatively low score that may not be
enough over the longer term
to keep Mexico at bay.
BMI is now forecasting Venezuelan real GDP growth
averaging 1.1% per annum between 2008 and
2013, with the 2009 forecast
being a decline of 5.6%. Population is expected to expand from 28.3mn to
31.0mn over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per
capita forecast to increase
by just 2.5% and 3.1%, respectively. The
country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an
estimated 104TWh in 2008 to 113TWh by the end of the forecast period,
providing continued export
potential on the basis of 4.9% annual growth in
electricity generation.
Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting an
increase in Venezuelan electricity generation of 55.2%,
which is around
the middle of the range for the Latin America region. This equates to 23.5% in
the 2013-
2018 period, down from 32.8% in 2008-2013. PED growth is set to
fall from 38.7% in 2008-2013 to
23.9% in 2013-2018, representing 79.6% for
the entire forecast period. An increase of 69.4% in hydropower
use during
2007-2018 is one key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation
is
forecast to rise by 71.3% between 2007 and 2018. More details of the
longer-term BMI power forecasts
can be found in the Appendix of this
report.
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