Abstract
The new Vietnam Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account
for 1.25% of Asia
Pacific regional power generation by 2013, with a
broadly stable supply and demand balance. BMI’s Asia
Pacific power
generation assumption for 2008 is 7,101 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an
increase of
3.7% over the previous year. We are forecasting an increase in
regional generation to 9,198TWh by 2013,
representing a rise of 34.0%.
Asia Pacific thermal power generation in 2008 was an estimated 5,568TWh,
accounting for 78.41% of the
total electricity supplied in the region. Our
forecast for 2013 is 7,043TWh, implying 30.2% growth that
reduces the
market share of thermal generation to 76.57% – thanks partly to
environmental concerns that
should be promoting renewables,
hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Vietnam’s thermal
generation
in 2008 was an estimated 38.9TWh, or 0.70% of the regional
total. By 2013, the country is expected to
account for 1.01% of thermal
generation in the region.
For Vietnam, oil is the dominant fuel,
accounting for around 50% of primary energy demand (PED),
followed by
hydro-power at 20%, coal at 18% and gas with a 12% share of PED. Regional
energy
demand is forecast to reach 4,881mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe)
by 2013, representing 32.0% growth
from the estimated 2008 level.
Vietnam’s estimated 2008 market share of 0.50% is set to rise to 0.60%
by
2013. Vietnam’s estimated 28.6TWh of hydro-electric demand in
2008 is forecast to reach 40.1TWh by
2013, with its share of the Asia
Pacific hydro market falling from 3.21% to 2.93% over the period.
Vietnam
is now ranked equal fourth with Malaysia in BMI’s updated Power Business
Environment
Rating, thanks largely to the growth potential of power
consumption and energy demand, plus healthy
scores in several other
categories. The country is at little risk from Indonesia below it, and may
have the
long-term potential to pull away from Malaysia.
BMI is now
forecasting Vietnamese real GDP growth averaging 6.13% per annum (pa) between
2008
and 2013, with a 2009 estimate of 2.90%. Population is expected to
expand from 86.8mn to 92.8mn over
the period, with GDP per capita and
electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase significantly
(by
63% and 61% respectively). The country’s power consumption is expected
to increase from an
estimated 68TWh in 2008 to 117TWh by the end of the
forecast period, assuming 10.9% annual growth
in generation.
Between
2007 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Vietnamese electricity
generation of 182%,
which is top of the range for the Asia Pacific region.
This equates to 51.7% in the 2013-2018 period,
down from 86.0% in
2008-2013. PED growth is set to decrease from 76% in 2008-2013 to 43%,
representing 151% for the entire forecast period. Hydro generation is expected
to rise by 182% between
2007 and 2018, with thermal power generation
forecast to increase by a similar amount over the same
period. More
detailed long-term BMI power forecasts can be found in the Appendix of this
report.
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