Abstract
The industry showed resilience to the global crisis until Q308. As BMI
examines here, the market
downturn of Q408 intensified in 2009 as the
credit crisis cut deeper into consumer’s pockets and
diminished
demand for expensive items.
According to Greece’s Association of
Motor Vehicle Importers - Representatives (AMVIR), a 5.5% yearon-
year
(y-o-y) fall in vehicle sales, down to 289,454 units, last year was followed
by a staggering 58.7%
y-o-y decrease to 35,839 units in 2M09. Slowing
economic activity also weakened demand for
commercial vehicles, which fell
by 38% y-o-y to 2,709 units during the period. With our economic
analysts
highlighting possible concerns about the financial stability of the market
this year, BMI has
revised down its sales forecast for the industry by 10
percentage points (pps). We currently forecast a
nearly 15% y-o-y drop in
sales, down to 245,000 units, with most of the negative pressure coming
from
the passenger car segment. In 2010, credit lines are expected to
remain fairly tight, although some
improvement by year-end can be
expected. We forecast 2010 sales to end only slightly higher than in
2009
at 246,000 units.
The fallout from the credit crisis and its impact upon
the European car industry in particular, is evident
from BMI’s
optimistic scenario of an 8-9% y-o-y drop in sales this year. Most governments
have
introduced incentive schemes to boost the market; industry
associations in Greece are pressing for a more
liberalised stance on
allowing non-diesel vehicles on the road.
The passenger car segment
continues to occupy more than 70% of the total market, followed by the
light
commercial vehicle (LCV) segment. Ownership levels have been
increasingly high in the past couple of
years, which has translated into
increased demand for small and mini cars. Hyundai’s i10 and
Fiat’s
Panda are the best-selling models in the latter segment,
while former is dominated by Toyota Motor and
Opel, with the Yaris and
Corsa being the most popular, respectively.
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