Abstract
Kuwait’s pharmaceutical market is small in regional terms. Combined
sales of over-the-counter (OTC)
and prescription drugs reached a total of
US$377mn in 2008, and we expect this to reach US$462mn by
2013 –
representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.17% in US dollar
terms.
Pharmaceutical spending will account for 0.27% of GDP, with per
capita expenditure at US$136 by the
end of the forecast period. We expect
growth to be driven by the strong bias toward patented drugs, which
still
dominate the market.
With little or no enforced incentives for prescribers
or dispensers to substitute for generics where
possible, this looks likely
to continue in the medium term. However, we note that import policies in
the
region have all been affected by unfavourable currency fluctuations
against the euro when procuring EU
medicines. We note that the Kuwaiti
government is not actively encouraging a domestic manufacturing
industry,
which restricts choices on imports and in addition means the country is
heavily reliant on those
medicines.
BMI’s Burden of Disease
Database (BoDD) reveals that the number of disability-adjusted life years
(DALYs) lost to communicable diseases in Kuwait will decrease from 29,836 in
2008 to 24,888 by 2030.
Meanwhile, the DALYs lost to non-communicable
disease will rise from 190,740 in 2008 to 258,306 by
2030. The main driver
for this growth is attributed to the rise in obesity and obesity-related
disorders
including hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular
disease.
We note that chronic conditions pose a significant burden on
healthcare services and directly lead to a rise
in prescription medication
spending. This makes the patented drug market in these therapeutic areas
particularly attractive to multinational drugmakers looking for new export
destinations in the Middle East.
Generic drugs are slowly gaining market
share, though government policy on substitution needs to be
drafted and
implemented to encourage further growth in this sector.
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