Abstract
The latest Qatar Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will
account for just 1.05% of
Middle Eastern (ME) regional oil demand by 2013,
while providing 5.83% of supply. Regional oil use of
8.24mn barrels per
day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 10.86mn b/d in 2008. It should
average
11.09mn b/d in 2009 and then rise to around 12.08mn b/d by 2013.
Regional oil production was 22.87mn
b/d in 2001, and in 2008 averaged an
estimated 25.94mn b/d. It is set to rise to 28.99mn b/d by 2013. Oil
exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of
supply expansion. In 2001,
the region was exporting an average 14.63mn
b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 15.18mn b/d in
2008 and is
forecast to reach 16.58mn b/d by 2013. Iraq has the greatest production growth
potential,
followed by Qatar.
As regards natural gas, the region in
2008 consumed an estimated 386bcm, with demand of 511bn cubic
metres (bcm)
targeted for 2013, representing 32.3% growth. Production of an estimated
407bcm in 2008
should reach 625bcm in 2013 (+53.8%), which implies net
exports rising to 115bcm by the end of the
period. Qatar in 2008 consumed
an estimated 5.44% of the region’s gas, with its market share forecast
at
4.62% by 2013. It contributed an estimated 17.21% to 2008 regional gas
production and, by 2013, will
account for 21.59% of supply.
In terms
of the OPEC basket of crudes, the average price in Q1 2009 was an estimated
US$45.78 per
barrel (bbl), down 13% from the US$52.51 recorded during the
previous three months. During the second
quarter, there has been little
change to our view of oil market developments. BMI is forecasting an
average OPEC basket price of US$51.30/bbl, with the March gains being retained
in April, before further
recovery to a possible US$57.00 is seen by June.
For 2009, we are still assuming an average OPEC basket
price of
US$52.00/bbl (-45% y-o-y). The BMI full-year forecast implies Brent crude at
US$53.73, WTI
averaging US$54.90/bbl and Urals at US$52.66 for 2009.
For the whole of 2009, the BMI assumption for gasoline is an average
US$56.89/bbl, with the price
peaking at a forecast monthly average of
US$64.75 in December 2009. The overall y-o-y fall in 2009
gasoline prices
is put at 44.1%. For gasoil in 2009, the BMI forecast is for an average price
of
US$69.35/bbl, assuming a monthly high of US$94.48/bbl in December. The
full-year outturn represents a
42.8% fall from the 2008 level. The monthly
average jet fuel price is forecast to range from US$53.75 in
February to
US$96.76/bbl in December, proving an annual level of US$71.78/bbl. This
compares with
US$124.95/bbl in 2008.
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