Abstract
According to Journal of Commerce Online, the Port of Antwerp registered a
container throughput decline
of 16.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 1.74mn
twenty-feet equivalent units (TEUs) in Q109, compared to
2.08mn TEUs in
Q108. In the same period, the port' s overall traffic plunged 19.3% y-o-y to
37.3mn
tonnes from 46.2mn tonnes in Q108. The port' s liquid bulk and dry
bulk shipments posted a decline of
4.1% y-o-y and 40% y-o-y respectively
in Q109. Belgium' s geographical location between Germany and
France allows
it to play a multimodal hub role, with Antwerp as a significant north European
port -
ranking among the top 10 ports in the world. The port is facing
growing competition from Hamburg and
Rotterdam. The company' s spokesperson
stated the throughput decline was primarily due to lower
imports of steel,
wood and granite, and this may continue with overall cargo traffic expected to
decline by
15% and container volume by around 20% in 2009.
In our
latest Belgium Freight Transport Report, the overriding story continues to be
about the impact of
the recession on the freight sector. We expect Belgian
GDP to fall by 2.3% in 2009, and for there to be
zero growth in 2010. As a
result, average annual GDP growth across the 2009-2013 five-year forecast
period will be only 0.7%. We expect annual average growth in freight carried
across all modes, measured
in million tonnes-km (mntkm), to be 0.5% during
the forecast period, lagging the economy as a whole.
Despite the poor
market conditions, this rate will be supported by greater infrastructure
investment.
Although we are relatively confident of the industry’s
resilience, the risks to the freight sector do lie on
the downside,
particularly because of the intensity of the European and global
recession.
For the 2009-2013 forecast period, we expect the value of
activity in the transport and communications
sector to continue outpacing
the economy as a whole. It will achieve average annual growth of 1.1%,
versus 0.7% for overall GDP. The total value of transport and communications
GDP will rise to US$19bn
in nominal terms by 2013, representing 6.8% of
Belgium’s GDP.
Our overall forecast for freight carried in Belgium
is for low growth based on a mature industry, good
infrastructure, a
reduced economic growth rate, and the country’s openness to foreign
trade. We see the
best performing sector to be airfreight, which –
with annual average growth of 1.0% – will come through
another
period of relative turbulence in the sector caused by a new peak in energy
costs. A smaller
European carrier, SN Brussels Airlines may be absorbed by
Lufthansa in the next round of regional
consolidation, although there is a
question mark over regulatory approval. If the takeover goes ahead, it
will not necessarily be negative for airfreight volume growth, and could
conceivably boost it further. Rail
freight and pipeline throughput are
both expected to grow by an annual average of 0.8%, just ahead of
GDP
expansion – this is due to new investment in infrastructure. We see road
freight broadly in line with
GDP, with an average annual growth of 0.7%,
reflecting the impact of the recession on freight demand.
Sea freight will
grow by an annual average of 0.3%, brought down by a sharp recession in 2009.
Inland
water transport will grow by an average of 0.4% per annum.
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