Abstract
In BMI’s latest pharmaceutical market report for Belgium, we are
forecasting flat value growth for
Belgium’s pharmaceutical market.
BMI expects the market to contract in 2009 from a high of EUR4.0bn
(US$5.6bn) in 2008 before recovering back to previous levels by the end of the
five year forecast period
in 2013. Having said this, we expect volume
consumption of pharmaceuticals to continue to rise as a
consequence of
Belgium’s aging population, highlighting our expectation for
considerable price pressure
on pharmaceuticals over the next five
years.
A continuation of the government’s cost containment policies
should mean that the generics market is the
fastest growing in value
terms. Despite low unit prices for generic medicines, BMI forecasts a 12%
CAGR for the generics market between 2009 and 2013, with the sector increasing
its share of the drug
market from 8% in 2008 to 15% in 2013.
The
government is supportive of Belgium’s R&D base and has been meeting
stakeholders to discuss how
to best support the industry through the
economic crisis. However, as a purchaser, the Belgian state has
taken a
tougher line on the pharmaceutical industry through its pricing and
reimbursement strategy. As of
May 1 2009, the prices of hundreds of
medicines were reduced, most of which were generics. The move
is expected
to generate savings of approximately US$90mn for Belgium’s sickness and
insurance
programme (INAMI).
BMI rates Belgium’s pharmaceutical
business environment poorly in comparison with its Western
European peers.
In BMI’s Q309 Business Environment Rankings, Belgium is placed eighth
out of nine
pharmaceutical markets in our Western Europe coverage. Flat
drug market and population growth are
unfavourable aspects to
Belgium’s business environment. However, a skilled workforce, low level
of
political risk and stable pharmaceutical regulatory system are
positives that continue to attract
multinational drugmakers to establish
plants in Belgium.
Belgium’s biotechnology industry is growing
rapidly, with both domestic and foreign companies
investing in plants. In
March 2009, US biotech Genzyme received approval from the European
Commission for the production of Myozyme (alglucosidase alfa) at the 4,000
litre (L) bioreactor scale at
its manufacturing facility in Geel, Belgium.
The news follows domestic company UCB’s announcement
that it would
build a biologicals pilot plant on its site at Braine-l’Alleud in
February 2009. The cost of the
plant is estimated at EUR65mn. It is
expected that the pilot plant will become operational at the beginning
of
2012.
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