Abstract
In 2009, BMI believes that the throughput trends at Croatia' s ports will
follow the pattern of the country' s
trade sector. We predict that both
imports and exports will fall by 10% in 2009. A recovery is set to begin
in 2010 with total trade growth forecast to increase by 3.27%. An average
yearly growth of 4.73%
between 2011 and 2013 is predicted after that.
In 2009, we expect the total throughput of the port of Rijeka to decrease to
10.9mn tonnes, representing
11.75% fall on 2008, when the port handled
12.4mn tonnes of cargo. We anticipate the recovery of
throughput volumes
to start in 2010. In the mid-term (2011-2013) we expect the handling to
increase by
5.66% on average, with the 2008 figure to be exceeded in 2012.
According to our forecasts, the port' s
throughput in 2013 will amount to
13.4mn tonnes.
The container handling, according to our estimates, will
fall by 25.87% to 125,097 TEUs in 2009. The
recovery will start in 2010,
and in 2012 the port will surpass its 2008 handling figure of 168,761 TEUs.
In
the mid-term, between 2011 and 2013, the growth will continue by 13.01%
per year on average. In 2013,
we expect the port to handle more than
199,363 TEUs.
The total cargo handling of the Port of Ploce, the second
largest in Croatia by both total and container
throughputs, is expected to
decrease to 4.2mn tonnes in 2009, representing an 18.45% fall on 2008,
when
the port handled 5.1mn tonnes of cargo. We anticipate the recovery of
throughput volumes to start in
2010. In the mid-term (2011-2013), we
expect the handling to increase by 15.17% on average, with the
2008 figure
to be exceeded in 2011. According to our forecasts, in 2013, the port' s
throughput will
amount to 7.2mn tonnes.
The handling of containers,
according to our estimates, will fall by 20.36% to 28,004 TEUs in 2009.
The
recovery will start in 2010, and in 2011 the port will surpass its
2008 handling figure of 35,163 TEUs. In
the mid-term, between 2011 and
2013, the growth will continue by 18.45% per year on average. In 2013,
we
expect the port to handle more than 54,175 TEUs.
As well as an in-depth
analysis of Croatia' s shipping sector, the Q309 Croatia Shipping Report also
offers
a global overview of the dry bulk, liquid bulk and container
sectors and overviews of the 11 largest
shipping lines and their
strategies over the quarter to weather the downturn in trade volumes.
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