Abstract
This report was written in late May 2009. Relative to the Q209 report, the
main changes pertain to the
profiles of companies – both regional
and predominantly local – which have been updated considerably.
We
have also included a brief overview of conditions – and development of
premium income – through
Q109. This is based on comments made by
major (mainly listed) companies which became available (for
the most part)
from mid-May. We hope to build on this section in terms of detail.
As we
explain, Q109 was in many ways a challenging but far from disastrous quarter
for the major
protagonists in most markets. Notwithstanding the fact that
particular non-life markets suffered as a result
of a slump in the number
of cars registered, and correspondingly lower demand for compulsory third
party motor (CTPM) insurance and voluntary motor insurance, global non-life
premiums generally held
up well in spite of the global economic downturn.
In contrast, life premiums were, in most markets, lower
in Q109 than they
had been in Q108. This was largely the result of the past volatility in global
equity
markets, although there were also other problems. Conditions remain
fair in the global reinsurance
market.
In terms of the major regions
whose insurance markets are covered by BMI’s reports, Latin America
and
the Middle East and North Africa stood out in terms of growth in
premiums (in non-life insurance in
particular, but also in life
insurance). Conditions were far more mixed in Central and Eastern Europe
(particularly in non-life insurance, where the downturn in car registrations
hit hard) and Asia Pacific
(where various factors caused slippage in life
premiums in many markets).
Revision Of Data And Forecasts
We have
updated the insurance data for 2008 – and our forecasts for the next
five years. In many cases,
preliminary or final figures for last year have
been published by the regulator or the trade association. In
some cases,
we have estimated figures for 2008, but only on the basis of information that
has been
published in relation to a significant portion of the year. It
should also be noted that, in some cases we
have based our 2008 estimate
on results disclosed by individual companies operating in the market in
question.
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