Abstract
In 2009 BMI believes that the throughput trends at Malaysia' s ports will
follow the pattern of the
country' s trade sector. We predict that both
imports and exports will fall in 2009, by 10.3% and 12.6%
respectively. A
recovery is set to begin in 2010 with total trade growth forecast to increase
by 4.4%. An
average yearly growth of 6.9% between 2011 and 2013 is
predicted after that.
In 2009, we expect the total throughput of Port
Klang to decrease to 128.6mn tonnes, representing 15.6 %
fall on 2008,
when the port handled 152.3mn tonnes of cargo. We anticipate the recovery of
throughput
volumes to start in 2010. In the mid-term (2011-2013) we expect
the handling to increase by 14.7 % on
average, with the 2008 figure to be
exceeded in 2011. According to our forecasts, in 2013, port' s
throughput
will amount to 214.8mn tonnes.
The container handling, according to our
estimates, will fall by 18.1% to 6.533mn TEUs in 2009. The
recovery will
start in 2010, and in 2011 the port will surpass its 2008 handling figure of
7.974mn TEUs.
In the mid-term, between 2011 and 2013, the growth will
continue by 15.8% per year on average. In
2013, we expect the port to
handle 11.337mn TEUs.
The handling of containers at the Port of Tanjung
Pelepas, the second largest in Malaysia by container
throughput, will
fall, according to our estimates, by 21.3% to 4.410mn TEUs in 2009. The
recovery will
start in 2010, and in 2012 the port will surpass its 2008
handling figure of 5.600mn TEUs. In the midterm,
between 2011 and 2013,
the growth will continue by 13% per year on average. In 2013, we expect
the port to handle more than 6.939mn TEUs.
As well as an in-depth analysis
of Malaysia' s shipping sector, the Q309 Malaysia Shipping Report also
offers a global overview of the dry bulk, liquid bulk and container sectors
and overviews of the 11 largest
shipping lines and their strategies over
the quarter to weather the downturn in trade volumes.
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