Abstract
In 2009, BMI believes the throughput trends at Poland' s ports will follow the
pattern of the country' s
trade sector. We predict that both imports and
exports will fall in 2009, by 3.5% and 4.5% respectively. A
recovery is
set to begin in 2010, with total trade growth forecast to increase by 4%. An
average yearly
growth of 5.9% between 2011 and 2013 is predicted after
that.
In 2009, we expect the total throughput of the port of Gdynia to
decrease to 13.8mn tonnes, representing a
10.6% fall on 2008, when the
port handled 15.5mn tonnes of cargo. We anticipate the recovery of
throughput volumes to start in 2010. In the mid-term (2011-2013), we expect
the handling to increase by
8.5% on average, with the 2008 figure to be
exceeded in 2011. According to our forecasts, in 2013, port' s
throughput
will amount to 18.7mn tonnes.
The container handling, according to our
estimates, will fall by 7.3% to 565,963 TEUs in 2009. The
recovery will
start in 2010, and in 2011 the port will surpass its 2008 handling figure of
610,767 TEUs. In
the mid-term, between 2011 and 2013, the growth will
continue by 10.1% per year on average. In 2013,
we expect the port to
handle approximately 811,786 TEUs.
The total cargo handling of the port of
Gdansk, the second largest in Poland by container throughput, is
expected
to decrease to 14.9mn tonnes in 2009, representing a 16.1% fall on 2008, when
the port handled
17.8mn tonnes of cargo. We anticipate the recovery of
throughput volumes to start in 2010. In the midterm
(2011-2013), we expect
the handling to increase by 6.5% on average, with the 2008 figure to be
exceeded in 2013, when, according to our forecasts, the port' s throughput will
amount to 18.8mn tonnes.
The handling of containers, according to our
estimates, will fall by 11% to 165,212 TEUs in 2009. The
recovery will
start in 2010, and in 2012 the port will surpass its 2008 handling figure of
185,661 TEUs. In
the mid-term, between 2011 and 2013, the growth will
continue by 5.7% per year on average. In 2013, we
expect the port to
handle about 202,283 TEUs.
As well as an in-depth analysis of Poland' s
shipping sector, the Q309 Poland Shipping Report also offers
a global
overview of the dry bulk, liquid bulk and container sectors and overviews of
the 11 largest
shipping lines and their strategies over the quarter to
weather the downturn in trade volumes.
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