Abstract
India’s general election campaign was relatively peaceful, although
marred in part by Maoist rebel attacks
in the north east during the poll,
ending on May 16 2009. The Congress Party emerged as the biggest
winner in
the poll, leading the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) to victory.
In
November 26 2008, 173 people were killed and scores more injured in terrorist
attacks in Mumbai that
were blamed on a Pakistan-based group.
Subsequently, India increased its defence outlay for 2009 by as
much as
34%. Tensions with Pakistan were re-ignited on June 2 with the release of
Hafiz Saeed, the
leader of a group tied to the Mumbai attacks, by the
Lahore High Court, Pakistan. Vishnu Prakash, India' s
external affairs
ministry spokesman, said: ‘His release raises serious doubts about
Pakistan' s sincerity in
acting with determination against terrorist groups
and individuals operating from its territory.’
India’s
reaction to the Mumbai terrorist attacks included conducting joint military
operation with China in
December 2008. India’s defence minister held
a series of talks with China’s navy to discuss how security
along
its 7,516km long coastline could be enhanced, given that the terrorists
entered Mumbai by sea. In
March 2009, sweeping changes to coastline
security were announced, with the Navy being assigned as the
‘designated authority’ to co-ordinate operations.
India has
expressed concern over developments in the Swat Valley region in north west
Pakistan, where
Taliban extremists have been re-grouping following the
breakdown of a truce made with the Pakistani
government. Defence Minister
AK Antony said that this was adding to India' s worries after 26/11, and
Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee described the Taliban as ‘a terrorist
organisation’, which was ‘a
danger to humanity and
civilisation’. The Pakistan government has been making gains recently in
its
strong army offensive against the Taliban in the north west, which
begun in April.
India’s civilian nuclear pact with the US continues
to be in the hands of the US congress, which is using
its scrutiny of the
deal as a leverage to influence India to limit its burgeoning relationship
with Iran.
The deal allows for complete civil nuclear energy trade and
co-operation with the US, and will have a
sizeable impact on the
government’s efforts to increase its power supply in line with rocketing
demand. It
represents great benefits to India in the form of nuclear fuel
and technology,
The deal is perceived in some quarters as a realignment of
India, still nominally a non-aligned state, with
US foreign policy.
Increasing military and defence co-operation with the US and Israel could
create a
rival axis to the expected Chinese regional dominance, and offer
India a greater range of arms for
procurement.
From 2010 India and
Russia have agreed to extend their Inter-Governmental Commission for
Military
and Technical Co-operation by another 10 years.
India has
been the largest importer of conventional arms among developing nations, yet
its military
exports are comparatively negligible.
We expect India to
continue its efforts to build strategic alliances to match its position as an
emerging
global power, and counterbalance a Sino-Pakistani
partnership.
This quarter, we have introduced a significant new aspect to
BMI' s Defence reports, which is the City
Terrorism Rating (CTR). This
assesses the risk of a terrorist attack. The CTR takes into account the
overall BMI Terrorism Rating for the country in question. It also incorporates
the ‘prevalence’ of
terrorism, which recognises the frequency
of attacks, and whether the city is a target for terrorists. The
CTR also
recognises the ‘threat’ of terrorism in terms of the likely
numbers of victims and the ability of
groups to launch sustained
campaigns. In India, we assess the CTRs for Kolkata, Mumbai and New Delhi.
The CTRs for these cities are 70, 40 and 35 respectively. In the Asia Pacific
region, Kolkata rates more
highly than most major cities in South East
Asia, but Mumbai' s and New Delhi' s CTRs are among the
lowest.
| 
View Cart
