Abstract
Italy is Europe’s largest textiles and clothing (T&C) producer, with a
strong fashion and design-led
manufacturing operation that enjoys a high
international reputation and a good track record for flexibility
and
innovation. BMI ranks it as number seven in the world in terms of textiles and
clothing
manufacturing value added. In nominal terms we estimate that to
have been worth US$29.74bn in 2008
(but note that this is a conservative
number based on UN classifications, other estimates range
significantly
higher). Despite its flexibility and resilience, the Italian industry has been
under growing
pressure from low-cost imports. We expect production to
contract in the next two years, which will be
deeply marked by the global
and Italian recession. Our projection is for the industry to recover and
grow
after that, but subsequent expansion will be moderate.
Overall,
Italy’s T&C value added will fall by 9.5% in 2009, and again by 2.8% in
2010, reflecting very
difficult international economic conditions. We see
output flat in 2011 and growing by 0.1% in 2012. The
industry’s
trade performance will also reflect the especially challenging international
economic situation.
We believe Italian companies will be forced to lose
business or increase their own level of offshoring in
pursuit of lower
cost assembly operation, with the higher value research and development (R&D),
design
and marketing staying in Italy.
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