Abstract
In April, new car sales in Poland reached 28,736 units, an increase of 2.4%
year-on-year (y-o-y),
according to estimates from the country’s
automotive market research group, Samar. The figures,
although a decline
of almost 7.6% on a month-on-month (m-o-m) basis, took total registrations
to
116,702 units for 4M09, itself an increase of 1.5% compared with the
period last year.
Polish car dealers have reportedly benefited from the
significant weakening of the zloty against the euro,
which has attracted
buyers from Germany and Slovakia. Additionally, the market is also reaping
the
rewards of scrappage schemes introduced by some European governments.
These have led to an overall
increase in demand from foreign buyers.
However, the figures do not necessarily indicate a surge in domestic demand.
Samar has pointed out that
the difference between domestic sales figures
and the number of vehicles registered in the country is 14%,
which means
that this is the percentage of cars purchased by overseas buyers seeking to
exploit the
weakened zloty. In Q1, 87,966 vehicles were sold in the
country, a 1,2% increase over the quarter last
year. However, only 75,991
vehicles were registered domestically, an 8.64% decline. Therefore while
more purchases are being made in the country by overseas buyers, sales to
Polish residents have fallen
dramatically.
For the European car market
as a whole, Samar has reported a y-o-y April registration drop of 12.3%,
the
twelfth consecutive monthly loss, with 1,251,862 units. In western
Europe, the average fall in April was
11.6% (but this masks wide
individual variations because in Germany and Austria, registrations
actually
increased). In Eastern Europe they were down by 21.4%. For 4M09,
there were registration increases for
Slovakia (0.3%), Poland (1.6%), and
the Czech Republic (1.8%). However, there were sharp downturns
in Slovenia
(-26.5%), Hungary (-34.4%), and Romania (-58.6%).
BMI believes that the
economy is well-positioned to emerge relatively unscathed from the downturn.
In
the longer term, the market has great potential due to low vehicle
ownership levels: currently, there are
only eight units for every 1,000
people. Additionally, a rise in average wages is likely to boost demand
which could reach over 500,000 units, a 37% increase over 2007 levels, by
end-2013, when our forecast
period closes.
| 
View Cart
