Abstract
In April 2009, it was announced that a number of private rail freight
companies had launched a trade body
in order to protect their interests.
The move comes as a price war between state-run PKP Cargo and
Germany’s Deutsche Bahn (DB) threatens to destabilise the sector.
According to local sources, PKP
Cargo can drop its prices very low and
then ask the state for a bail-out. DB is also state-owned and so also
benefits from anti-competitive advantages. With DB in the process of taking
over the second largest rail
freight company in Poland, PCC, there is the
possibility that a duopoly will be created in the market,
which would be
detrimental to private competition. Meanwhile, the fact that PKP Cargo is part
of a single
group with state-owned railway company PKP Polish Railway
Lines is also considered unfair by some
rivals. After all, PKP Cargo owns
the majority of cargo terminals in the country and other operators have
to
submit applications to use the terminals, up to 30 days in advance. Meanwhile,
prices for accessing the
country’s rail infrastructure are
considered to be prohibitively high.
However, not all commentators agree
with the creation of a trade body and believe the rail operators
should
combine to take on the road haulage industry, which is the biggest competitive
threat. Also,
instead of the Polish Parliament agreeing to a PLN1.5bn
bailout for PKP Cargo, there are calls for the
money to go to PKP PRL,
which could spend the money improving rail infrastructure, which would
benefit the entire sector. In 2008, PKP Cargo announced losses of
PLN200mn.
Meanwhile, In June 2009, it was reported by Puls Biznesu that
Polish airline LOT was planning to sell
stakes in a number of its
subsidiaries in order to service debts. New CEO Sebastian Mikosz is
reportedly
considering divesting its 3.3% stake in gambling group Casinos
Poland, as well as three companies that
specialise in airport servicing.
The firm will ask for permission for the sales of assets at the upcoming
general shareholders meeting. Meanwhile, Poland’s Treasury Ministry in
combination with state-run
investment fund Silesia, have recently
purchased a 25% stake in LOT. The shares came from bankrupt
airline
Swissair. As a result, LOT is now 93% owned by the Ministry and Silesia.
However, the purchase
is seen by many as smoothing progress for the
takeover of the airline, with Germany’s Lufthansa one of
the
reported suitors. When asked about the rumours at a recent airline meeting in
Kuala Lumpur,
Lufthansa CEO Wolfgang Mayrhuber denied that the company was
in negotiations with LOT.
Leading indicators suggest that while the Polish
economy may have sidestepped recession during the first
quarter of 2009,
the collapse in consumer spending in the following quarters will likely tip
the economy
over the edge by mid-year. Moreover, though our global outlook
projects an economic trough in H109 for
most developed markets, we believe
that the Polish economy will bottom out in Q209-Q309, and will
enjoy a
fairly spritely recovery thereafter. We now expect GDP to fall by 2.7% in 2009
(versus a +3.5%
projection made in our last quarterly report). We see a
recovery with 2.8% expansion in 2010, and growth
of 4.3% in 2011. The
effect on our freight traffic forecasts for the period as a whole, compared
with the
preceding one, is therefore negative.
Poland registered a
21.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) slump in the mass of loads lifted to 52.7mn tonnes
in
Q109. In the same period, the country recorded a 28.8% y-o-y plunge in
mass of loads moved to 8.7bn
tonne-kms. Polish Railway Cargo (PKP Cargo)
registered 35.4% and 38.2% y-o-y declines in mass of
loads lifted and
moved respectively in Q109. In Poland, the transport sector is not
significantly different
from elsewhere in Europe, whereby freight is
dominated by the private sector but passenger transport
remains within
state control and ownership
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