Abstract
The newly published Brazil Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country
will by 2013 account for
41.05% of Latin America regional power
generation. BMI’s Latin America power generation estimate for
2008
is 1,125 terawatt hours (twh), representing an increase of 3.4% over the
previous year. We are
forecasting growth in regional generation to
1,322twh by 2013, representing a rise of 17.6%.
Latin American thermal
power generation in 2008 is estimated by BMI at 438twh, accounting for
38.9%
of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for
2013 is 530twh, implying 21.0% growth,
increasing the market share of
thermal generation to 40.1% – in spite of environmental concerns
that
should be promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear power.
Brazil’s thermal generation in
2008 was an estimated 57.4twh, or
13.11% of the regional total. By 2013, the country is expected to
account
for 15.30% of thermal generation.
For Brazil, oil was in 2007 the dominant
fuel, accounting for 44.5% of primary energy demand (PED),
followed by
hydro at 38.8%, gas at 9.1%, coal at 6.3% and nuclear at 1.3%. Regional energy
demand is
forecast to reach 718mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2013,
representing 14.7% growth. Brazil’s
estimated 2008 market share of
36.54% is set to reach 37.46% by 2013. The country’s estimated 13twh
of
nuclear demand in 2008 is forecast to reach 18twh by 2013, with its
share of the regional nuclear market
expected to rise from an estimated
42.48% to 46.15%.
Brazil is still ranked first, well above nearest rival
Colombia, in BMI’s updated power sector Business
Environment
Ratings, thanks to its vast market size and excellent growth prospects. It
scores highest in
the region for installed generating capacity,
electricity generation, PED and its use of renewables (largely
hydro-power). Certain country risk factors offset some of the industry
strength, but the country seems
destined to remain at the head of the
table for the foreseeable future.
BMI is now forecasting average annual
real GDP growth of 2.75% between 2008 and 2013, with the
2009 forecast
being a decline of 0.60%. The population is expected to expand from 192mn to
204mn over
the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per
capita forecast to increase significantly
(by 40% and 10%, respectively).
The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an
estimated 451twh in 2008 to 528twh by the end of the forecast period,
providing theoretical export
potential that is cancelled out largely by
transmission losses. BMI is assuming 3.8% annual growth in
electricity
generation.
Between 2008 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in
Brazilian electricity generation of 56.7%,
which is above average for the
Latin America region. This equates to 25.2% in the 2013-2018 period, up
from 18.5% in 2008-2013. PED growth is set to rise from 17.6% in 2008-2013 to
21.1%, representing
50.2% for the entire forecast period. An anticipated
increase of 45.4% in hydro-power use during 2008-
2018 is one key element
of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by
157.3%
between 2008 and 2018, with nuclear consumption up by 61.8%. More
details of the longer-term BMI
power forecasts can be found later in this
report.
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