Abstract
BMI believes that throughput trends at Bulgaria' s ports will follow the
pattern of the country' s trade
sector in 2009. We predict that both
imports and exports will fall in 2009, by 15% and 13%, respectively.
A
recovery is set to begin in 2010, with total trade growth forecast to increase
by 2.4%. Average yearly
growth of 3.6% between 2011 and 2013 is predicted
after that.
In 2009 we expect the total throughput of the Port of Varna to
fall to 6.97mn tonnes, down 9.8% on 2008,
when the port handled 7.72mn
tonnes of cargo. We anticipate a recovery of throughput volumes to start
in
2010. In 2011-2013 we expect the volumes handled by the port to
increase by an annual average of 4%,
with the 2008 figure to be exceeded
in 2012. According to our forecasts, Varna' s throughput will be
8.19mn
tonnes in 2013.
Containers handled at the port will fall by 13%, to
135,164 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in 2009.
The recovery will
start in 2010, and in 2012 the port will surpass its 2008 handling figure
of
155,326TEUs. Between 2011 and 2013 growth will continue, averaging 6.3%
a year. In 2013 we expect
the port to handle 174,663TEUs.
As well as
an in-depth analysis of Bulgaria' s shipping sector, the Q309 Bulgaria Shipping
Report also
offers a global overview of the dry bulk, liquid bulk and
container sectors and overviews of the 11 largest
global shipping lines
and their strategies over the quarter to weather the downturn in trade
volumes.
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