Abstract
The newly published Chile Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country
will account for 5.29% of
Latin American regional power generation by
2013. BMI’s Latin America power generation estimate for
2008 is
1,125 terawatt hours (twh), representing an increase of 3.4% over the previous
year. We are
forecasting growth in regional generation to 1,322twh by
2013, representing a rise of 17.6%.
Latin American thermal power
generation in 2008 is estimated by BMI at 438twh, accounting for 38.9%
of
the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2013 is 530twh,
implying 21.0% growth,
increasing the market share of thermal generation
to 40.1% – in spite of environmental concerns that
should be
promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear power. Chile’s
thermal generation in 2008
was an estimated 33.2twh, or 7.59% of the
regional total. By 2013, the country is expected to account for
7.11% of
thermal generation.
For Chile, in 2007 oil was the dominant fuel,
accounting for 55.8% of primary energy demand (PED),
followed by hydro at
18.7%, gas at 13.9% and coal at 11.6%. Regional energy demand is forecast to
reach
718mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2013, representing 14.7%
growth. Chile’s estimated 2008 market
share of 4.97% is set to rise
to 5.00% by 2013.
Chile is now ranked third, having this quarter overtaken
Argentina, in BMI’s updated power sector
Business Environment
Ratings, thanks to its power consumption growth prospects, privatisation
progress,
competitive landscape and regulatory framework. Country risk
factors are generally supportive, and the
reasonable gap between the
respective scores of Chile and Argentina means that the latter is unlikely
to
challenge for third place over the medium term.
BMI is forecasting
Chilean average annual real GDP growth of 2.42% between 2008 and 2013,
with
growth of just 0.1% forecast for 2009. The population is expected to
expand from 16.9mn to 17.9mn over
the period, with GDP per capita and
electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase by 41.3% and
1.3%,
respectively. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase
from an estimated 51.7twh
in 2008 to 55.4twh by the end of the forecast
period. This results in a slight theoretical supply surplus,
assuming
average annual growth in electricity generation of 3.2%.
Between 2008 and
2018, we are forecasting an increase in Chilean electricity generation of
42.3%, which
is mid-range for the Latin America region. This equates to
18.2% in the 2013-2018 period, up from
17.5% in 2008-2013. PED growth is
set to fall from 15.5% in 2008-2013 to 14.3%, representing 38.6%
for the
entire forecast period. An increase of 50.2% in hydro-power use during
2008-2018 is one key
element of generation growth. Thermal power
generation is forecast to rise by 36.7% between 2008 and
2018. More
details of the longer-term BMI power forecasts can be found later in this
report.
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