Abstract
This new Japan Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account
for 12.86% of Asia
Pacific regional power generation by 2013, with a
comfortable theoretical generation surplus. BMI’s Asia
Pacific power
generation assumption for 2008 is 7,093 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an
increase of
3.2% over the previous year. We are forecasting an increase in
regional generation to 9,099TWh by 2013,
representing a rise of 28.3%.
Asia Pacific thermal power generation in 2008 totalled an estimated 5,570TWh,
accounting for 78.5% of
the total electricity supplied in the region. Our
forecast for 2013 is 6,999TWh, implying a 25.7% growth.
This should reduce
the market share of thermal generation to 76.9% – thanks largely to
environmental
concerns promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear
generation. Japan’s thermal generation in
2008 was an estimated
781TWh, or 14.03% of the regional total. By 2013, the country is expected
to
account for 10.83% of thermal generation.
For Japan, in 2007, oil
was the dominant fuel, accounting for 44.2% of primary energy demand
(PED).
This was followed by coal at 24.2%, gas at 15.7%, nuclear at 12.2%
and hydropower at 3.7%. Regional
energy demand is forecasted to reach
4,859mn ton oil equivalent (toe) by 2013, representing 24.9%
growth from
the estimated 2008 level. Japan’s estimated 2008 market share of 13.1%
is set to fall to
10.29% by 2013. Japan’s share of regional nuclear
consumption in 2008 was an estimated 52.89%, falling
to 46.39% by
2013.
BMI is forecasting that Japanese real GDP growth will average 0.16%
per annum between 2009 and
2013, with the 2009 estimate being a decline of
6.1%. Population is expected to contract from 127.6mn to
126.3mn over the
period, with 2008-2013 GDP per capita expected to shrink by 5%, while
electricity
consumption per capita is forecasted to increase by just over
1%. The country’s power consumption is
expected to increase from
around 990TWh in 2008 to 994TWh by the end of the forecast period, with
theoretical surplus generation rising from an estimated 160TWh in 2008 to
176TWh by 2013. This is
assuming 0.1% annual growth in generation.
Between 2008 and 2018, we are forecasting a 5.4% increase in Japanese
electricity generation, which is
the lowest projected rate for the Asia
Pacific region. This equates to 3.6% in the 2013-2018 period, up
from 1.7%
in 2008-2013. PED is set to fall by 1.9% in 2008-2013, then by 0.6% in
2013-2018,
representing a decline of 2.5% for the entire forecast period.
An increase of 17% in hydro-power use
during 2008-2018 is a key element of
the power trend. Thermal power generation is forecasted to fall by
4.3%
between 2008 and 2018. More details of the long-term BMI power forecasts can
be found later in
this report.
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