Abstract
Pakistan is facing its worst security crisis in 60 years. Its security
offensive launched in April against the
Pakistani Taliban (the
Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan) in the Swat province in the north west of the
country
appears to have achieved its main object with the capture of the
region’s biggest city and administrative
centre Mingora.
As of
early June, some fighting continued in mountainous rural areas –
particularly the Peochar valley,
the stronghold of the rebel forces.
However, reports from Islamabad suggest that the Pakistan military is
now
preparing to confront the Taliban in the tribal region of Waziristan, where
clashes have already
erupted.
The Pakistan government has widespread
political support for this action, except from the fundamentalist
party
Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami. The US has also praised Islamabad’s
‘strong response’ to the militant
threat.
However, the
fighting has caused a massive internal problem for the country with an
estimated 2.4mn
people displaced by the fighting in the north west. The
UNHCR on May 19 called for ‘urgent and
massive’ international
help for displaced.
Violence has spread elsewhere in the country. In
late-May, there was a suicide gun and bomb attack in
Lahore that killed 24
people and wounded nearly 300. The Pakistani Taliban claimed responsibility
for
the attack, saying it was out of revenge for the army offensive in the
Swat region.
In March 2009, a terrorist attack in Lahore on the visiting
Sri Lankan cricket team left eight people dead
and eight Sri Lankan test
players wounded.
Tensions remain high in Baluchistan, where the local
tribesmen want the large military presence in the
area reduced, saying it
undermines their autonomy. In April, at least eight were killed in rioting in
the
region. The intervention of the government in these formerly
autonomous tribal areas has ended their
isolation. The government
maintains that any change in policy would mean allowing the region to once
again become a safe haven for smugglers, warlords and criminals. Baluchistan
serves as a major route for
the smuggling of drugs produced in
Afghanistan, and the government has asked for US help to prevent
the
smuggling of weapons and drugs across the border.
The Baluchistan tribes
want to participate in the local gas fields and other major projects there,
with
access to jobs and profit-sharing.
The Mumbai terrorist attacks
of November 2008 by members of Lashkar-e-Toiba, a Pakistani militant
organisation, rocked the region. Fears were held for an exacerbation of
tensions between India and
Pakistan.
The Kashmir situation forms part
of the composite dialogue that India has initiated with Pakistan. The
talks, which began in January 2004, were suspended by India after the Mumbai
attacks, as they were
carried out by Pakistan-based terrorists. The
External Affairs Minister did not specify the conditions, but
India has
maintained that the dialogue can be resumed only after Pakistan takes what
India considers to be
credible and transparent actions to bring to justice
the perpetrators of Mumbai attacks, and dismantle the
terror
infrastructure.
Pakistan’s defence industry comprises over 20 major
public sector units (PSUs) and over 100 privatesector
firms. The
state-owned PSUs dominate major weapons systems production and assembly, while
the
private-sector supplies parts, components, bladed weapons and field
equipment. Major PSUs include the
Pakistan Ordnance Factory (POF), Heavy
Industries Taxila (HIT), Karachi Shipyard and Engineering
Works (KSEW) and
the Pakistan Machine Tool Factory.
There are incipient signs of a
stabilisation in the Pakistani economy, with inflation subsiding and the
twin-deficit problem slowly diminishing in magnitude. As reflected in the
first IMF review under
Pakistan' s bail-out conditions, the authorities
have thus far been successful in reining in some of the acute
macroeconomic imbalances built up in recent years.
This quarter, we have
introduced a significant new aspect to BMI' s Defence reports, which is the
City
Terrorism Rating (CTR). This assesses the risk of a terrorist attack.
The CTR takes into account the
overall BMI Terrorism Rating for the
country in question. It also incorporates the ‘prevalence’ of
terrorism, which recognises the frequency of attacks, and whether the city is
a target for terrorists. The
CTR also recognises the ' threat' of terrorism
in terms of the likely numbers of victims and the ability of
groups to
launch sustained campaigns. In Pakistan, we assess the CTR in Islamabad,
Lahore and Karachi.
The CTRs for these cities are 10, 25and 27.5
respectively. In the Asia Pacific region, these are the three
lowest
ratings, apart from Colombo (Sri Lanka) at 2nd lowest, of the 31 cities
surveyed in the region. They
reflect the dire security threats currently
facing Pakistan.
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