Abstract
The new Philippines Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will
account for just 0.85% of
Asia Pacific regional power generation by 2013,
with a modest generation surplus that provides a
theoretical export
capability. BMI’s Asia Pacific power generation assumption for 2008 is
7,093 terawatt
hours (TWh), representing an increase of 3.2% over the
previous year. We are forecasting an increase in
regional generation to
9,099TWh by 2013, representing a rise of 28.3%.
Asia Pacific thermal power
generation in 2008 totalled an estimated 5,570TWh, accounting for 78.5% of
the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2013 is
6,999TWh, implying 25.7% growth
that reduces the market share of thermal
generation to 76.9% – thanks largely to environmental concerns
promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. The
Philippines’ thermal generation in
2008 was an estimated 54.3twh, or
0.98% of the regional total. By 2013, the country is expected to
account
for 0.95% of thermal generation in the region.
For the Philippines, oil is
the dominant fuel, accounting for an estimated 55.9% of 2007 primary
energy
demand (PED), followed by coal at 23.9%, gas at 12.4% and
hydro-electric energy at 7.8%. Regional
energy demand is forecast to reach
4,859mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2013, representing 24.9%
growth
from the estimated 2008 level. The Philippines’ estimated 2008 market
share of 0.70% is set to
ease to 0.68% by 2013. The country’s
estimated 8.7TWh of hydro demand in 2008 is forecast to reach
11.0TWh by
2013, with its share of the Asia Pacific hydro market falling from 0.97% to
0.83% over the
period.
The Philippines is ranked ninth in BMI’s
Power Business Environment rating, in spite of its relatively
high level
of renewables usage and healthy energy demand growth prospects. Country risk
factors offset
much of the industry strength, but the country should be
able to keep South Korea at bay and potentially
challenge Hong Kong for
eighth place.
BMI forecasts the Philippines’ real GDP growth
averaging 3.90% a year between 2009 and 2013, with
the 2009 estimate at
2.80%. Population is expected to expand from 89.7mn to 98.4mn over the
period,
with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita
forecast to increase by 40% and 9%
respectively. The country’s power
consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 54.0TWh in
2008 to
64.3TWh by the end of the forecast period, leaving theoretical surplus
generation rising from
9.2TWh in 2008 to 13.4TWh in 2013, assuming 4.5%
annual growth in electricity generation.
Between 2008 and 2018, we are
forecasting an increase in the Philippines’ electricity generation
of
51.3%, which is around the middle of the range for the Asia Pacific
region. This equates to 23.0% in the
2013-2018 period, unchanged from
23.0% in 2008-2013. PED growth is set to decrease from 21.6% in
2008-2013
to 19.3%, representing 45.1% for the entire forecast period. An increase of
54% in hydroPhilippines
power use during 2008-2018 is a key element of
generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast
to rise by 51%
between 2008 and 2018. More details of our long-term power forecasts are at
the end of
this report.
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